Prediction: MP II vs HaPK
Expected goals: 4.27 (MP II 1.87 · HaPK 2.41). The model gives 30% home, 20% draw, 50% away. Under 4.25 goals (52%) and both teams to score (63%). Most likely score: 1-2.
On recent form, MP II is 3-0-7 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and HaPK 6-1-3 over its own. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for MP II and 2 for HaPK.
| MP II | Draw | HaPK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 21% | 50% |
| Market | 30% | 20% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HaPK (rating 1461 vs 1540).
- H2H favours HaPK: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MP II | HaPK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.1 | 2.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 67/0/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.4 | 1.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MP II 0–0–2 HaPK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/24 Finland Kolmonen | MP II | 1-2 HT 1-2 | HaPK |
| 23/05/24 Finland Kolmonen | HaPK | 4-1 HT 2-1 | MP II |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IPS Edustus | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | PeKa | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Kultsu FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | MiPK | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 20 |
| 5 | HaPK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 19 |
| 6 | LAUTP | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 14 |
| 7 | KJP | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 13 |
| 8 | KoPa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 13 |
| 9 | MP II | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 9 |
| 10 | Edustus STPS | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 7 |
| 11 | Kumu | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 4 |
| 12 | LAUTP II | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | MP II | HaPK |
|---|---|---|
| PeKa | 1-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Edustus STPS | 4-0 W | 4-0 W |
| MiPK | 1-2 L | 4-3 W |
| LAUTP II | 4-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Kumu | 6-2 W | 5-1 W |
| Kultsu FC | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| KoPa | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| KJP | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| LAUTP | 0-2 L | 5-2 W |
| IPS Edustus | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 7 L | 6 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: HaPK (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MP II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | PeKa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/06 | Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 12/06 | MiPK Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Kumu Finland Kolmonen |
– | 6-2 | – | – | W |
| 20/05 | Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | KoPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/05 | KJP Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 29/04 | LAUTP Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
HaPK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/06 | LAUTP Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 5-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | PeKa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/05 | MiPK Finland Kolmonen |
4-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Kumu Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 29/04 | KoPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | KJP Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MP II vs HaPK?
According to our model, the most likely result is an HaPK win (50%). Probabilities: MP II 30%, draw 20%, HaPK 50%.
How many goals are expected in MP II vs HaPK?
The model expects 4.27 goals (MP II 1.87 · HaPK 2.41), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in MP II vs HaPK?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.