Football · Finland Kolmonen · 17/09, 17:45

Prediction: MiPK vs KJP

Team pages: MiPK · KJP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

MiPK2.62

KJP1.36

1X2

64% 18% 18%

MiPK Draw KJP

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

MiPK 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLLWWW

KJP 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

MiPK 4–1 KJP (5 last)

KJP1-3MiPK
MiPK6-1KJP
KJP3-2MiPK
MiPK2-0KJP
MiPK5-0KJP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MiPK 1574 · KJP 1533

	MiPK	Draw	KJP
Our model	64%	19%	18%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MiPK (rating 1574 vs 1533).
H2H favours MiPK: 4-0-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MiPK	KJP
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.3	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/25/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.5	1.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:04 +4’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MiPK 4–0–1 KJP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	1-3 HT 0-2	MiPK
22/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	MiPK	6-1 HT 3-0	KJP
23/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	3-2	MiPK
02/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	MiPK	2-0	KJP
07/09/22 Finland Kolmonen	MiPK	5-0 HT 3-0	KJP

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PeKa	19	14	2	3	67	26	44
2	Kultsu FC	19	13	2	4	58	28	41
3	IPS Edustus	19	12	4	3	47	32	40
4	MiPK	19	12	2	5	54	27	38
5	KJP	19	10	2	7	34	22	32
6	HaPK	19	10	1	8	44	40	31
7	MP II	19	9	0	10	44	40	27
8	KoPa	19	7	2	10	28	45	23
9	LAUTP	19	6	3	10	36	48	21
10	Edustus STPS	19	5	2	12	25	44	17
11	Kumu	19	2	2	15	24	63	8
12	LAUTP II	19	2	2	15	15	61	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MiPK	KJP
MP II	4-1 W	3-0 W
IPS Edustus	4-2 W	2-3 L
HaPK	3-2 W	0-2 L
PeKa	1-2 L	2-0 W
Edustus STPS	0-2 L	1-3 L
LAUTP	4-0 W	1-1 D
LAUTP II	7-0 W	2-0 W
Kumu	5-1 W	1-0 W
Kultsu FC	2-3 L	4-2 W
KoPa	4-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MiPK (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MiPK

WLWWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	MP II Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
03/09	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
26/08	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
20/08	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/08	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
06/08	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	6	3	W
28/07	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-0	10	1	W
25/07	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
02/07	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
27/06	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	5	W

KJP

LWLLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
21/08	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/08	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
08/08	MP II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/07	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	7	4	L
25/07	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
02/07	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
27/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MiPK vs KJP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MiPK win (64%). Probabilities: MiPK 64%, draw 18%, KJP 18%.

How many goals are expected in MiPK vs KJP?

The model expects 3.99 goals (MiPK 2.62 · KJP 1.36), with a 55% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in MiPK vs KJP?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.