Football · Finland Kolmonen · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: ToU vs Yllatys

Team pages: ToU · Yllatys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

ToU1.56

Yllatys2.18

1X2

27% 21% 51%

ToU Draw Yllatys

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

ToU 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLLLL

Yllatys 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDDLDW

Head-to-head

ToU 4–2 Yllatys (6 last)

Yllatys0-1ToU
ToU1-4Yllatys
Yllatys1-2ToU
ToU3-2Yllatys
Yllatys7-2ToU
ToU3-2Yllatys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ToU 1406 · Yllatys 1521

	ToU	Draw	Yllatys
Our model	27%	22%	51%
Market	28%	21%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yllatys (rating 1406 vs 1521).
H2H favours ToU: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ToU	Yllatys
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 3	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/29/57%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	2.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.33

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:35 +2’	3.25	4.33	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ToU 4–0–2 Yllatys

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	Yllatys	0-1 HT 0-1	ToU
24/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	ToU	1-4 HT 0-1	Yllatys
20/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	Yllatys	1-2	ToU
01/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	ToU	3-2 HT 1-2	Yllatys
29/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	Yllatys	7-2	ToU
30/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	ToU	3-2 HT 0-1	Yllatys

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kings SC	16	13	0	3	58	24	39
2	NiemU	15	12	1	2	37	10	37
3	Jippo II	16	6	4	6	35	33	22
4	KUPS Akatemia II	15	6	2	7	34	34	20
5	Yllatys	15	5	3	7	29	34	18
6	PK-37	15	4	3	8	24	35	15
7	SC Zulimanit	15	4	2	9	17	31	14
8	ToU	15	3	1	11	14	47	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ToU	Yllatys
KUPS Akatemia II	1-2 L	1-1 D
SC Zulimanit	1-3 L	2-0 W
NiemU	1-3 L	1-1 D
Kings SC	0-8 L	3-2 W
PK-37	0-3 L	1-1 D
Jippo II	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Yllatys (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ToU

LLWWLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	KUPS Akatemia II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
31/07	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
24/07	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/07	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-8	1	3	L
28/06	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
18/06	Jippo II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
11/06	Yllatys Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/06	KUPS Akatemia II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/05	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	14	3	L
23/05	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	0-6	–	–	L

Yllatys

WWLLWDDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
01/08	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/07	Jippo II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
15/07	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/06	KUPS Akatemia II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/06	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
11/06	ToU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
05/06	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/05	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
22/05	Jippo II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ToU vs Yllatys?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Yllatys win (51%). Probabilities: ToU 27%, draw 21%, Yllatys 51%.

How many goals are expected in ToU vs Yllatys?

The model expects 3.73 goals (ToU 1.56 · Yllatys 2.18), with a 56% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in ToU vs Yllatys?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.