Football · Finland Kolmonen · 31/07, 17:30

Prediction: LoPa vs EPS Reservi

Team pages: LoPa · EPS Reservi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

LoPa2.35

EPS Reservi1.55

1X2

55% 20% 25%

LoPa Draw EPS Reservi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

LoPa 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLWWL

EPS Reservi 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLDLWLW

Head-to-head

LoPa 1–0 EPS Reservi (1 last)

EPS Reservi0-1LoPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LoPa 1474 · EPS Reservi 1457

	LoPa	Draw	EPS Reservi
Our model	55%	21%	24%
Market	55%	20%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LoPa	EPS Reservi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1.7 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/38/50%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:39 +24’	1.61	4.50	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LoPa 1–0–0 EPS Reservi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	EPS Reservi	0-1 HT 0-1	LoPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	13	10	1	2	52	20	31
2	ESPA	12	9	1	2	32	11	28
3	Poxyt	12	7	1	4	28	23	22
4	LePa	12	6	2	4	21	21	20
5	NuPS	12	5	4	3	22	14	19
6	LoPa	12	5	1	6	16	19	16
7	Gilla FC	12	4	2	6	25	26	14
8	MPS	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	12	3	3	6	18	33	12
10	EPS Reservi	12	3	3	6	19	35	12
11	GrIFK Reservi	13	3	2	8	21	28	11
12	HooGee	12	3	1	8	18	33	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LoPa	EPS Reservi
ESPA	0-2 L	2-4 L
Gilla FC	3-2 W	1-5 L
Poxyt	2-0 W	0-5 L
GrIFK Reservi	1-2 L	2-0 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	0-3 L	1-5 L
HooGee	1-2 L	6-2 W
NuPS	2-2 D	1-1 D
EIF Academy	2-3 L	2-9 L
MPS	2-0 W	0-0 D
LePa	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: LoPa (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LoPa

LWLDLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
23/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
16/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
12/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	1	6	L
29/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
22/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
15/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-3	2-3	5	1	L
08/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L

EPS Reservi

LWLDLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-5	3	3	L
24/06	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-3	2-9	0	1	L
14/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
24/05	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	4	3	L
17/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	3-0	6-2	5	3	W
09/05	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	–	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LoPa vs EPS Reservi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LoPa win (55%). Probabilities: LoPa 55%, draw 20%, EPS Reservi 25%.

How many goals are expected in LoPa vs EPS Reservi?

The model expects 3.91 goals (LoPa 2.35 · EPS Reservi 1.55), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LoPa vs EPS Reservi?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.