Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/09, 19:15

Prediction: HooGee vs LoPa

Team pages: HooGee · LoPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

HooGee1.74

LoPa2.38

1X2

28% 20% 52%

HooGee Draw LoPa

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

HooGee 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWL

LoPa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLWDD

Head-to-head

HooGee 2–0 LoPa (2 last)

LoPa1-2HooGee
HooGee2-1LoPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HooGee 1421 · LoPa 1492

	HooGee	Draw	LoPa
Our model	28%	21%	52%
Market	28%	20%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LoPa (rating 1421 vs 1492).
H2H favours HooGee: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HooGee	LoPa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 3.1	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.7	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.50

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:13 +4’	3.20	4.50	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HooGee 2–0–0 LoPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LoPa	1-2 HT 0-1	HooGee
02/06/17 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	2-1 HT 0-0	LoPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	17	12	3	2	60	23	39
2	ESPA	17	12	3	2	42	15	39
3	LePa	17	11	2	4	37	28	35
4	Poxyt	17	8	2	7	36	36	26
5	LoPa	17	7	3	7	28	28	24
6	NuPS	17	6	5	6	28	24	23
7	GrIFK Reservi	17	7	2	8	32	31	23
8	Gilla FC	17	6	3	8	34	37	21
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	17	5	3	9	25	42	18
10	EPS Reservi	17	3	5	9	24	48	14
11	MPS	17	3	4	10	15	31	13
12	HooGee	17	4	1	12	29	47	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HooGee	LoPa
GrIFK Reservi	0-2 L	1-2 L
EPS Reservi	2-0 W	4-1 W
LePa	4-5 L	2-3 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	2-3 L	0-3 L
NuPS	3-4 L	2-2 D
Poxyt	1-2 L	2-0 W
Gilla FC	3-6 L	3-2 W
EIF Academy	2-4 L	2-2 D
ESPA	0-3 L	0-2 L
MPS	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 9 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: LoPa (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HooGee

LLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
20/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	4-5	3	3	L
06/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
31/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-4	1	4	L
23/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
01/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-6	7	1	L
25/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
12/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	1	3	L
05/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

LoPa

LLWWLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	0	7	D
20/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
12/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
05/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
31/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-1	2	2	W
27/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
23/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
16/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
12/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HooGee vs LoPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LoPa win (52%). Probabilities: HooGee 28%, draw 20%, LoPa 52%.

How many goals are expected in HooGee vs LoPa?

The model expects 4.11 goals (HooGee 1.74 · LoPa 2.38), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in HooGee vs LoPa?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.