Football · Finland Kolmonen · 29/07, 18:00

Prediction: KPV Akatemia vs Virkia

Team pages: KPV Akatemia · Virkia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.39Total

KPV Akatemia1.85

Virkia2.54

1X2

28% 20% 53%

KPV Akatemia Draw Virkia

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

KPV Akatemia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLWLLW

Virkia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWLLW

Head-to-head

KPV Akatemia 2–1–1 Virkia (4 last)

Virkia4-2KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia4-0Virkia
Virkia1-4KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia2-2Virkia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KPV Akatemia 1461 · Virkia 1539

	KPV Akatemia	Draw	Virkia
Our model	27%	20%	53%
Market	28%	20%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virkia (rating 1461 vs 1539).
H2H favours KPV Akatemia: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KPV Akatemia	Virkia
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 3.1	3.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.6	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	14/29/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	1.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:59 +6’	3.25	4.50	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KPV Akatemia 2–1–1 Virkia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Virkia	4-2	KPV Akatemia
11/07/21 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	4-0 HT 3-0	Virkia
25/07/18 Finland Kolmonen	Virkia	1-4 HT 1-1	KPV Akatemia
04/05/18 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	2-2 HT 0-1	Virkia

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	13	11	1	1	47	9	34
2	FC Kiisto	13	8	3	2	34	15	27
3	FC Ylivieska	13	7	1	5	38	29	22
4	SIF	13	6	3	4	26	18	21
5	Virkia	12	6	2	4	37	16	20
6	SJK-j	13	5	3	5	30	21	18
7	VPV Pallo-Veikot	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
8	Nykarleby IK	13	4	4	5	17	30	16
9	Sporting Kristina	11	4	2	5	15	16	14
10	KPV Akatemia	12	3	1	8	29	39	10
11	LBK	13	3	1	9	16	34	10
12	Sääripotku	11	0	1	10	4	69	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KPV Akatemia	Virkia
VPV Pallo-Veikot	2-1 W	0-1 L
SJK-j	3-6 L	1-0 W
SIF	2-3 L	3-0 W
FC Ylivieska	5-3 W	2-1 W
Nykarleby IK	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sääripotku	5-0 W	18-0 W
VIFK	1-7 L	1-3 L
FC Kiisto	4-4 D	3-3 D
Sporting Kristina	1-3 L	0-2 L
LBK	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Virkia (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KPV Akatemia

LLDLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
16/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-6	2	2	L
01/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	1	1	L
23/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-3	1	7	W
18/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
10/06	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-4	1-7	0	1	L
26/05	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-4	3	3	D
20/05	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
13/05	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L

Virkia

DWWLWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	18-0	–	–	W
16/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
29/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
24/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-3	7	1	D
11/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
06/06	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	11	1	L
28/05	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/05	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
13/05	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KPV Akatemia vs Virkia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Virkia win (53%). Probabilities: KPV Akatemia 28%, draw 20%, Virkia 53%.

How many goals are expected in KPV Akatemia vs Virkia?

The model expects 4.39 goals (KPV Akatemia 1.85 · Virkia 2.54), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in KPV Akatemia vs Virkia?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.