Football · Finland Kolmonen · 30/07, 18:00

Prediction: FC Ylivieska vs VIFK

Team pages: FC Ylivieska · VIFK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.28Total

FC Ylivieska1.39

VIFK2.89

1X2

16% 17% 68%

FC Ylivieska Draw VIFK

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ylivieska 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLWLWW

VIFK 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Ylivieska 0–1 VIFK (1 last)

VIFK5-2FC Ylivieska

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Ylivieska 1510 · VIFK 1606

	FC Ylivieska	Draw	VIFK
Our model	15%	17%	68%
Market	16%	16%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 4.28 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VIFK (rating 1510 vs 1606).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ylivieska	VIFK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.2	3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X5.50

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.85

2 (-1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:04 +1’	5.50	5.50	1.33
04:04 +3’	5.75▲	5.50	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ylivieska 0–0–1 VIFK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	VIFK	5-2	FC Ylivieska

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	13	11	1	1	47	9	34
2	FC Kiisto	13	8	3	2	34	15	27
3	FC Ylivieska	13	7	1	5	38	29	22
4	SIF	13	6	3	4	26	18	21
5	Virkia	12	6	2	4	37	16	20
6	SJK-j	13	5	3	5	30	21	18
7	VPV Pallo-Veikot	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
8	Nykarleby IK	13	4	4	5	17	30	16
9	Sporting Kristina	11	4	2	5	15	16	14
10	KPV Akatemia	12	3	1	8	29	39	10
11	LBK	13	3	1	9	16	34	10
12	Sääripotku	11	0	1	10	4	69	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ylivieska	VIFK
FC Kiisto	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sporting Kristina	2-0 W	0-1 L
LBK	4-1 W	5-0 W
KPV Akatemia	3-5 L	7-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	4-0 W	2-1 W
SJK-j	2-2 D	0-0 D
SIF	2-1 W	1-0 W
Virkia	1-2 L	3-1 W
Nykarleby IK	4-6 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	7 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: VIFK (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Ylivieska

LLWDWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
16/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	3	1	L
02/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	0	5	W
23/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	7	L
17/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
11/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
04/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
28/05	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/05	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	3-3	4-6	3	5	L

VIFK

WDWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
15/07	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	7-1	–	–	W
29/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
25/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/06	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
11/06	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	4-1	7-1	7	1	W
27/05	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
23/05	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ylivieska vs VIFK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VIFK win (68%). Probabilities: FC Ylivieska 16%, draw 17%, VIFK 68%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ylivieska vs VIFK?

The model expects 4.28 goals (FC Ylivieska 1.39 · VIFK 2.89), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ylivieska vs VIFK?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.