Football · Finland Kolmonen · 13/08, 18:00

Prediction: SJK-j vs VIFK

Team pages: SJK-j · VIFK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

SJK-j1.13

VIFK2.26

1X2

17% 20% 62%

SJK-j Draw VIFK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

SJK-j 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLWLDL

VIFK 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWDW

Head-to-head

SJK-j 0–1–0 VIFK (1 last)

VIFK0-0SJK-j

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SJK-j 1453 · VIFK 1598

	SJK-j	Draw	VIFK
Our model	17%	21%	62%
Market	18%	20%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VIFK (rating 1453 vs 1598).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SJK-j	VIFK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	3.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/25/63%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	2.9 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.50

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.95

2 (-1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
X	5.00 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	1.36 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +6’	5.50	5.00	1.36
15:10 +4’	5.00▼	4.50▼	1.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SJK-j 0–1–0 VIFK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	VIFK	0-0	SJK-j

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	13	10	2	1	38	10	32
2	FC Kiisto	14	9	3	2	39	17	30
3	Virkia	13	7	2	4	25	19	23
4	FC Ylivieska	13	6	2	5	31	30	20
5	VPV Pallo-Veikot	13	6	2	5	18	18	20
6	SIF	14	5	3	6	23	26	18
7	SJK-j	14	4	4	6	21	23	16
8	Sporting Kristina	13	4	3	6	16	18	15
9	LBK	14	5	0	9	21	36	15
10	Nykarleby IK	13	3	4	6	17	32	13
11	KPV Akatemia	14	2	1	11	27	47	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SJK-j	VIFK
FC Kiisto	1-2 L	2-1 W
Sporting Kristina	0-0 D	0-1 L
LBK	2-4 L	5-0 W
KPV Akatemia	6-3 W	7-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	0-2 L	2-1 W
Virkia	0-1 L	3-1 W
SIF	2-2 D	3-1 W
FC Ylivieska	2-2 D	1-1 D
Nykarleby IK	1-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	7 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: VIFK (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SJK-j

DLDDLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
22/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-4	6	3	L
16/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-3	6	2	W
02/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
24/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
17/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
11/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	5	D
04/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
23/05	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D

VIFK

WWWLWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	9	8	W
30/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	7	11	D
23/07	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
15/07	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	7-1	–	–	W
29/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
25/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/06	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
11/06	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	4-1	7-1	7	1	W
27/05	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SJK-j vs VIFK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VIFK win (62%). Probabilities: SJK-j 17%, draw 20%, VIFK 62%.

How many goals are expected in SJK-j vs VIFK?

The model expects 3.39 goals (SJK-j 1.13 · VIFK 2.26), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SJK-j vs VIFK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.