Football · Finland Kolmonen · 13/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Ylivieska vs Nykarleby IK

Team pages: FC Ylivieska · Nykarleby IK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.29Total

FC Ylivieska2.75

Nykarleby IK1.54

1X2

62% 19% 19%

FC Ylivieska Draw Nykarleby IK

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ylivieska 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWLWWD

Nykarleby IK 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLDDLL

Head-to-head

FC Ylivieska 0–1 Nykarleby IK (1 last)

Nykarleby IK6-4FC Ylivieska

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Ylivieska 1514 · Nykarleby IK 1478

	FC Ylivieska	Draw	Nykarleby IK
Our model	62%	18%	19%
Market	62%	19%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ylivieska	Nykarleby IK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/11/22%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 2.8	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.75

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +10’	1.44	4.75	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ylivieska 0–0–1 Nykarleby IK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Nykarleby IK	6-4 HT 3-3	FC Ylivieska

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	13	10	2	1	38	10	32
2	FC Kiisto	14	9	3	2	39	17	30
3	Virkia	13	7	2	4	25	19	23
4	FC Ylivieska	13	6	2	5	31	30	20
5	VPV Pallo-Veikot	13	6	2	5	18	18	20
6	SIF	14	5	3	6	23	26	18
7	SJK-j	14	4	4	6	21	23	16
8	Sporting Kristina	13	4	3	6	16	18	15
9	LBK	14	5	0	9	21	36	15
10	Nykarleby IK	13	3	4	6	17	32	13
11	KPV Akatemia	14	2	1	11	27	47	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ylivieska	Nykarleby IK
VIFK	1-1 D	1-3 L
FC Kiisto	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sporting Kristina	2-0 W	1-1 D
LBK	4-1 W	0-5 L
KPV Akatemia	3-5 L	2-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	4-0 W	1-1 D
SJK-j	2-2 D	3-1 W
SIF	2-1 W	0-2 L
Virkia	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ylivieska (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Ylivieska

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	1	11	D
23/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
16/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	3	1	L
02/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	0	5	W
23/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	7	L
17/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
11/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
04/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
28/05	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	3	3	L

Nykarleby IK

WLWDWLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
23/07	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
02/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
25/06	LBK Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-5	0	3	L
18/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	9	2	W
11/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
04/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	10	5	W
28/05	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	0	3	L
21/05	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	3-3	6-4	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ylivieska vs Nykarleby IK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ylivieska win (62%). Probabilities: FC Ylivieska 62%, draw 19%, Nykarleby IK 19%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ylivieska vs Nykarleby IK?

The model expects 4.29 goals (FC Ylivieska 2.75 · Nykarleby IK 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ylivieska vs Nykarleby IK?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.