Football · Finland Kolmonen · 19/08, 18:00

Prediction: Virkia vs FC Ylivieska

Team pages: Virkia · FC Ylivieska

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Virkia2.22

FC Ylivieska1.9

1X2

45% 22% 33%

Virkia Draw FC Ylivieska

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Virkia 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLWWWL

FC Ylivieska 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Virkia 1–0 FC Ylivieska (1 last)

FC Ylivieska1-2Virkia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Virkia 1533 · FC Ylivieska 1530

	Virkia	Draw	FC Ylivieska
Our model	45%	22%	33%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Virkia	FC Ylivieska
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.4	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/13/50%	78/0/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.6	2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	2.75 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.42 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +18’	2.00	4.00	2.75
16:24 +1’	1.85▼	4.10▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +2’	1.74	4.06	3.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Virkia 1–0–0 FC Ylivieska

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Ylivieska	1-2 HT 1-1	Virkia

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	14	10	2	2	39	12	32
2	FC Kiisto	16	9	3	4	40	22	30
3	Virkia	14	7	2	5	26	21	23
4	FC Ylivieska	14	7	2	5	33	31	23
5	VPV Pallo-Veikot	14	7	2	5	20	19	23
6	SIF	15	6	3	6	27	29	21
7	SJK-j	15	5	4	6	23	24	19
8	LBK	15	6	0	9	23	37	18
9	Sporting Kristina	13	4	3	6	16	18	15
10	Nykarleby IK	15	3	4	8	21	38	13
11	KPV Akatemia	15	3	1	11	30	47	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virkia	FC Ylivieska
LBK	1-2 L	4-1 W
Nykarleby IK	2-1 W	2-1 W
KPV Akatemia	4-2 W	3-5 L
VPV Pallo-Veikot	0-1 L	4-0 W
VIFK	1-3 L	1-1 D
SJK-j	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC Kiisto	3-3 D	1-0 W
SIF	3-0 W	2-1 W
Sporting Kristina	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	6 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ylivieska (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virkia

LWDWLLWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
29/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	7	6	W
25/07	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	18-0	–	–	W
16/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
29/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
24/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-3	7	1	D
11/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
06/06	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	11	1	L

FC Ylivieska

WDWLWLWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
30/07	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	1	11	D
23/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
16/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	3	1	L
02/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	0	5	W
23/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	7	L
17/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
11/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
04/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virkia vs FC Ylivieska?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Virkia win (45%). Probabilities: Virkia 45%, draw 22%, FC Ylivieska 33%.

How many goals are expected in Virkia vs FC Ylivieska?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Virkia 2.22 · FC Ylivieska 1.9), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Virkia vs FC Ylivieska?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.