Football · Finland Kolmonen · 17/09, 17:00

Prediction: Nykarleby IK vs LBK

Team pages: Nykarleby IK · LBK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

Nykarleby IK2.1

LBK1.83

1X2

44% 21% 34%

Nykarleby IK Draw LBK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nykarleby IK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLLWW

LBK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWLDL

Head-to-head

Nykarleby IK 0–1 LBK (1 last)

LBK5-0Nykarleby IK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nykarleby IK 1458 · LBK 1510

	Nykarleby IK	Draw	LBK
Our model	44%	22%	34%
Market	45%	21%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LBK (rating 1458 vs 1510).
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nykarleby IK	LBK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	2.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/25/63%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.8	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.33

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:47 +4’	2.00	4.33	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nykarleby IK 0–0–1 LBK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	LBK	5-0 HT 4-0	Nykarleby IK

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	18	14	2	2	58	14	44
2	FC Kiisto	19	10	4	5	47	27	34
3	SIF	18	9	3	6	40	33	30
4	FC Ylivieska	18	9	3	6	42	39	30
5	Virkia	18	7	3	8	34	38	24
6	SJK-j	18	6	5	7	28	31	23
7	VPV Pallo-Veikot	17	7	2	8	21	24	23
8	Sporting Kristina	18	6	4	8	27	33	22
9	Nykarleby IK	18	5	4	9	26	41	19
10	LBK	18	6	1	11	26	49	19
11	KPV Akatemia	18	4	1	13	34	54	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nykarleby IK	LBK
KPV Akatemia	2-1 W	3-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	2-0 W	3-2 W
SJK-j	1-2 L	4-2 W
SIF	3-4 L	0-2 L
FC Ylivieska	1-2 L	1-4 L
Virkia	1-2 L	2-1 W
VIFK	1-3 L	0-8 L
FC Kiisto	0-0 D	1-1 D
Sporting Kristina	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nykarleby IK (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nykarleby IK

LDDLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
03/09	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/08	SIF Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-4	2	2	L
13/08	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
08/08	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
23/07	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
02/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
25/06	LBK Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-5	0	3	L

LBK

WLLWWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-8	–	–	L
28/08	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
13/08	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
30/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-2	1	3	W
16/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
02/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-4	5	5	L
25/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	4-0	5-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nykarleby IK vs LBK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nykarleby IK win (44%). Probabilities: Nykarleby IK 44%, draw 21%, LBK 34%.

How many goals are expected in Nykarleby IK vs LBK?

The model expects 3.93 goals (Nykarleby IK 2.1 · LBK 1.83), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Nykarleby IK vs LBK?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.