Football · Finland Kolmonen · 31/07, 17:00

Prediction: NuPS vs HooGee

Team pages: NuPS · HooGee

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

NuPS2.6

HooGee1.14

1X2

68% 17% 14%

NuPS Draw HooGee

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

NuPS 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDDDLWWW

HooGee 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

NuPS 1–2–2 HooGee (5 last)

HooGee2-0NuPS
HooGee0-0NuPS
NuPS2-6HooGee
HooGee3-5NuPS
HooGee2-2NuPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NuPS 1535 · HooGee 1440

	NuPS	Draw	HooGee
Our model	68%	18%	14%
Market	69%	16%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NuPS (rating 1535 vs 1440).
H2H favours HooGee: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NuPS	HooGee
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.5 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.93

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:58 +7’	1.30	5.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NuPS 1–2–2 HooGee

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	2-0 HT 1-0	NuPS
28/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	0-0 HT 0-0	NuPS
23/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	NuPS	2-6	HooGee
12/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	3-5 HT 0-1	NuPS
31/05/18 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	2-2 HT 1-2	NuPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	12	9	1	2	50	19	28
2	ESPA	12	9	1	2	32	11	28
3	Poxyt	12	7	1	4	28	23	22
4	LePa	12	6	2	4	21	21	20
5	NuPS	12	5	4	3	22	14	19
6	LoPa	12	5	1	6	16	19	16
7	Gilla FC	12	4	2	6	25	26	14
8	MPS	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	12	3	3	6	18	33	12
10	EPS Reservi	12	3	3	6	19	35	12
11	GrIFK Reservi	12	3	2	7	20	26	11
12	HooGee	12	3	1	8	18	33	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NuPS	HooGee
GrIFK Reservi	3-0 W	2-1 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	6-1 W	2-2 D
MPS	2-0 W	0-2 L
Poxyt	1-2 L	1-2 L
Gilla FC	1-1 D	3-6 L
EPS Reservi	1-1 D	2-6 L
LoPa	2-2 D	2-1 W
LePa	3-3 D	1-3 L
EIF Academy	2-0 W	2-4 L
ESPA	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: NuPS (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NuPS

LWDDDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-1	7	1	W
17/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
07/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
31/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
22/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
13/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
07/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
03/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	2	4	L

HooGee

DLLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
01/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-6	7	1	L
25/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
12/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	1	3	L
05/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
29/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
21/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
17/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-3	2-6	8	3	L
06/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	5	0	L
28/04	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NuPS vs HooGee?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NuPS win (68%). Probabilities: NuPS 68%, draw 17%, HooGee 14%.

How many goals are expected in NuPS vs HooGee?

The model expects 3.74 goals (NuPS 2.6 · HooGee 1.14), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in NuPS vs HooGee?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.