Football · Finland Kolmonen · 31/07, 18:15

Prediction: ESPA vs PPJ/Ruoholahti

Team pages: ESPA · PPJ/Ruoholahti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.1Total

ESPA3.05

PPJ/Ruoholahti1.05

1X2

78% 13% 9%

ESPA Draw PPJ/Ruoholahti

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

ESPA 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWLWW

PPJ/Ruoholahti 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWLLWL

Head-to-head

ESPA 5–0 PPJ/Ruoholahti (5 last)

PPJ/Ruoholahti1-2ESPA
ESPA3-1PPJ/Ruoholahti
PPJ/Ruoholahti1-5ESPA
ESPA5-3PPJ/Ruoholahti
PPJ/Ruoholahti1-2ESPA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESPA 1606 · PPJ/Ruoholahti 1465

	ESPA	Draw	PPJ/Ruoholahti
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	80%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.1 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESPA (rating 1606 vs 1465).
H2H favours ESPA: 5-0-0.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ESPA	PPJ/Ruoholahti
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.9	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.2	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	0/56/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 7.6	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.88

2 (+2.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
06:05 +2’	1.14	7.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ESPA 5–0–0 PPJ/Ruoholahti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	PPJ/Ruoholahti	1-2 HT 0-0	ESPA
19/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	3-1 HT 1-0	PPJ/Ruoholahti
12/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	PPJ/Ruoholahti	1-5 HT 0-2	ESPA
28/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	5-3 HT 3-0	PPJ/Ruoholahti
23/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	PPJ/Ruoholahti	1-2 HT 0-0	ESPA

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	12	9	1	2	50	19	28
2	ESPA	12	9	1	2	32	11	28
3	Poxyt	12	7	1	4	28	23	22
4	LePa	12	6	2	4	21	21	20
5	NuPS	12	5	4	3	22	14	19
6	LoPa	12	5	1	6	16	19	16
7	Gilla FC	12	4	2	6	25	26	14
8	MPS	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	12	3	3	6	18	33	12
10	EPS Reservi	12	3	3	6	19	35	12
11	GrIFK Reservi	12	3	2	7	20	26	11
12	HooGee	12	3	1	8	18	33	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESPA	PPJ/Ruoholahti
LoPa	2-0 W	3-0 W
LePa	2-0 W	1-3 L
GrIFK Reservi	2-4 L	1-1 D
HooGee	3-0 W	2-2 D
EPS Reservi	4-2 W	5-1 W
Poxyt	4-1 W	0-3 L
EIF Academy	1-1 D	0-4 L
MPS	4-0 W	0-0 D
Gilla FC	6-1 W	2-1 W
NuPS	2-0 W	1-6 L
Record vs common	8 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: ESPA (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ESPA

WWWDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
28/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	9	5	L
12/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
05/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
29/05	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	11	5	W
21/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-0	11	1	W
08/05	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-1	3	5	W
03/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	7	4	W

PPJ/Ruoholahti

DDWLDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	1	L
03/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	5-1	4	3	W
25/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-6	2	1	L
10/06	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	10	4	L
04/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
28/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
22/05	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	4	1	L
13/05	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
07/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
28/04	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESPA vs PPJ/Ruoholahti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ESPA win (78%). Probabilities: ESPA 78%, draw 13%, PPJ/Ruoholahti 9%.

How many goals are expected in ESPA vs PPJ/Ruoholahti?

The model expects 4.1 goals (ESPA 3.05 · PPJ/Ruoholahti 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ESPA vs PPJ/Ruoholahti?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.