Prediction: ESPA vs LePa
Expected goals: 4.11 (ESPA 3.05 · LePa 1.06). The model gives 77% home, 13% draw, 10% away. Under 4.25 goals (54%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 3-1.
Over its last 10 matches, ESPA sits at 7-1-2 (W-D-L), while LePa arrives on a 5-2-3 run. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, ESPA won 0 and LePa 0, with 1 draw.
| ESPA | Draw | LePa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 77% | 13% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESPA (rating 1566 vs 1511).
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ESPA | LePa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 50/38/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.4 | 3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ESPA 0–1–0 LePa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/22 Finland Kolmonen | LePa | 1-1 HT 0-1 | ESPA |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EIF Academy | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 46 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | ESPA | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Poxyt | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 19 |
| 4 | LePa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 17 |
| 5 | NuPS | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 16 |
| 6 | LoPa | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 16 |
| 7 | Gilla FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 14 |
| 8 | MPS | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 12 |
| 9 | GrIFK Reservi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 11 |
| 10 | HooGee | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 10 |
| 11 | EPS Reservi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 30 | 9 |
| 12 | PPJ/Ruoholahti | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 9 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | ESPA | LePa |
|---|---|---|
| GrIFK Reservi | 2-4 L | 0-4 L |
| HooGee | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| EPS Reservi | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Poxyt | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| EIF Academy | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| MPS | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gilla FC | 6-1 W | 1-4 L |
| NuPS | 2-0 W | 3-3 D |
| PPJ/Ruoholahti | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| LoPa | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 7 W 1 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: ESPA (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ESPA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-4 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 12/06 | HooGee Finland Kolmonen |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/06 | EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | Poxyt Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 15/05 | MPS Finland Kolmonen |
4-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | NuPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | LoPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
LePa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 27/05 | EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | MPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | NuPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 06/05 | HooGee Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | LoPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/04 | Poxyt Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ESPA vs LePa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ESPA win (77%). Probabilities: ESPA 77%, draw 13%, LePa 10%.
How many goals are expected in ESPA vs LePa?
The model expects 4.11 goals (ESPA 3.05 · LePa 1.06), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ESPA vs LePa?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.