Football · Finland Kolmonen · 12/08, 19:00

Prediction: Gilla FC vs ESPA

Team pages: Gilla FC · ESPA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Gilla FC1.57

ESPA2.44

1X2

24% 20% 56%

Gilla FC Draw ESPA

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Gilla FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLWLWL

ESPA 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Gilla FC 0–1 ESPA (1 last)

ESPA6-1Gilla FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gilla FC 1478 · ESPA 1596

	Gilla FC	Draw	ESPA
Our model	23%	20%	56%
Market	24%	20%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESPA (rating 1478 vs 1596).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gilla FC	ESPA
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	2.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/25/0%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	3.8 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.50

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
06:01 +4’	3.80	4.50	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gilla FC 0–0–1 ESPA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	6-1 HT 2-0	Gilla FC

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	14	11	1	2	55	20	34
2	ESPA	14	11	1	2	35	11	34
3	LePa	14	8	2	4	29	24	26
4	Poxyt	14	8	1	5	32	29	25
5	NuPS	14	6	4	4	26	19	22
6	LoPa	14	6	1	7	22	23	19
7	Gilla FC	14	5	2	7	29	31	17
8	PPJ/Ruoholahti	14	4	3	7	21	36	15
9	GrIFK Reservi	14	4	2	8	24	28	14
10	MPS	14	3	3	8	12	25	12
11	EPS Reservi	14	3	3	8	20	42	12
12	HooGee	14	3	1	10	23	40	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gilla FC	ESPA
Poxyt	1-3 L	4-1 W
MPS	3-2 W	4-0 W
LePa	0-2 L	2-0 W
HooGee	6-3 W	3-0 W
LoPa	2-3 L	2-0 W
EIF Academy	1-3 L	1-1 D
NuPS	1-1 D	2-0 W
GrIFK Reservi	2-1 W	2-4 L
EPS Reservi	5-1 W	4-2 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ESPA (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gilla FC

LWWDLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/07	MPS Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	4	7	W
22/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	8	1	L
01/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	3-2	6-3	6	1	W
23/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	1	2	L
10/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	4	4	L
07/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
24/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	7	3	W
13/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L

ESPA

WDWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
31/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
27/07	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
28/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	9	5	L
12/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
05/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
29/05	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	11	5	W
21/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-0	11	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gilla FC vs ESPA?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ESPA win (56%). Probabilities: Gilla FC 24%, draw 20%, ESPA 56%.

How many goals are expected in Gilla FC vs ESPA?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Gilla FC 1.57 · ESPA 2.44), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gilla FC vs ESPA?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.