Prediction: HauPa vs Villan Pojat
Expected goals: 4.35 (HauPa 2.81 · Villan Pojat 1.53). The model gives 64% home, 17% draw, 19% away. Over 4 goals (52%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves HauPa with 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; Villan Pojat has piled up 2-4-4 in the same span. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for HauPa and 0 for Villan Pojat.
| HauPa | Draw | Villan Pojat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Market | 64% | 17% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HauPa (rating 1517 vs 1465).
- H2H favours HauPa: 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HauPa | Villan Pojat | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 2 | 1.2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 0/33/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.5 | 5 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HauPa 4–0–0 Villan Pojat
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/25 Finland Kolmonen | HauPa | 5-0 | Villan Pojat |
| 09/07/25 Finland Kolmonen | Villan Pojat | 2-4 | HauPa |
| 02/05/24 Finland Kolmonen | HauPa | 6-0 HT 4-0 | Villan Pojat |
| 07/04/23 Finland Cup | Villan Pojat | 3-4 HT 1-2 | HauPa |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, North Group
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kajha | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | RoPo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Ajax Sarkkiranta | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 4 | HauPa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 11 |
| 5 | KePS | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 11 |
| 6 | Villan Pojat | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | KaPa Kajaani | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 7 |
| 8 | Hercules-J | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Claus | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 6 |
| 10 | PonPa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HauPa | Villan Pojat |
|---|---|---|
| Kajha | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Santa Claus | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| KePS | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Ajax Sarkkiranta | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| KaPa Kajaani | 1-0 W | 0-5 L |
| PonPa | 13-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: HauPa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HauPa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | KePS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/05 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | RoPo Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | PonPa Finland Kolmonen |
5-1 | 13-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | GBK Finland Cup |
0-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 27/09 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/09 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-8 | – | – | L |
Villan Pojat
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | PonPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/03 | Santa Claus Finland Cup |
1-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | HauPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | KePS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/09 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HauPa vs Villan Pojat?
According to our model, the most likely result is a HauPa win (64%). Probabilities: HauPa 64%, draw 17%, Villan Pojat 19%.
How many goals are expected in HauPa vs Villan Pojat?
The model expects 4.35 goals (HauPa 2.81 · Villan Pojat 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in HauPa vs Villan Pojat?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.