Football · Finland Kolmonen · 30/07, 18:00

Prediction: SJK-j vs Sporting Kristina

Team pages: SJK-j · Sporting Kristina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

SJK-j1.94

Sporting Kristina1.49

1X2

48% 23% 29%

SJK-j Draw Sporting Kristina

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SJK-j 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLDDLLWL

Sporting Kristina 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

SJK-j 1–3 Sporting Kristina (4 last)

Sporting Kristina0-1SJK-j
Sporting Kristina1-0SJK-j
SJK-j1-2Sporting Kristina
Sporting Kristina4-0SJK-j

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SJK-j 1471 · Sporting Kristina 1518

	SJK-j	Draw	Sporting Kristina
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	48%	22%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Kristina (rating 1471 vs 1518).
H2H favours Sporting Kristina: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SJK-j	Sporting Kristina
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/11/67%	50/38/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.1	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:34 +31’	1.91	4.00	2.90
04:02 +4’	1.85▼	4.00	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SJK-j 1–0–3 Sporting Kristina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	0-1	SJK-j
19/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	1-0 HT 0-0	SJK-j
27/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	SJK-j	1-2 HT 0-0	Sporting Kristina
26/08/22 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	4-0 HT 2-0	SJK-j

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	13	11	1	1	47	9	34
2	FC Kiisto	13	8	3	2	34	15	27
3	FC Ylivieska	13	7	1	5	38	29	22
4	SIF	13	6	3	4	26	18	21
5	Virkia	12	6	2	4	37	16	20
6	SJK-j	13	5	3	5	30	21	18
7	VPV Pallo-Veikot	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
8	Nykarleby IK	13	4	4	5	17	30	16
9	Sporting Kristina	11	4	2	5	15	16	14
10	KPV Akatemia	12	3	1	8	29	39	10
11	LBK	13	3	1	9	16	34	10
12	Sääripotku	11	0	1	10	4	69	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SJK-j	Sporting Kristina
LBK	2-4 L	2-1 W
KPV Akatemia	6-3 W	3-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	0-2 L	4-1 W
Virkia	0-1 L	2-0 W
SIF	2-2 D	1-2 L
FC Ylivieska	2-2 D	0-2 L
Nykarleby IK	1-3 L	1-1 D
VIFK	0-0 D	1-0 W
FC Kiisto	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Kristina (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SJK-j

LWDLDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-4	6	3	L
16/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-3	6	2	W
02/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
24/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
17/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
11/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	5	D
04/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
23/05	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/05	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	4-0	10-0	15	0	W
14/05	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	11	2	L

Sporting Kristina

LWWWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
02/07	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
15/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
10/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
27/05	LBK Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
20/05	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
14/05	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-1	5	4	W
09/05	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SJK-j vs Sporting Kristina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SJK-j win (48%). Probabilities: SJK-j 48%, draw 23%, Sporting Kristina 29%.

How many goals are expected in SJK-j vs Sporting Kristina?

The model expects 3.44 goals (SJK-j 1.94 · Sporting Kristina 1.49), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SJK-j vs Sporting Kristina?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.