Football · Finland Kolmonen · 31/07, 19:15

Prediction: Poxyt vs LePa

Team pages: Poxyt · LePa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Poxyt2.28

LePa1.75

1X2

49% 21% 30%

Poxyt Draw LePa

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Poxyt 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLLW

LePa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Poxyt 1–1–0 LePa (2 last)

LePa1-1Poxyt
Poxyt6-2LePa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Poxyt 1510 · LePa 1521

	Poxyt	Draw	LePa
Our model	49%	21%	29%
Market	50%	21%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Poxyt	LePa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.1	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 2.9	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.33

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
06:07 +2’	1.80	4.33	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Poxyt 1–1–0 LePa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	LePa	1-1 HT 1-1	Poxyt
02/09/22 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	6-2 HT 4-0	LePa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	12	9	1	2	50	19	28
2	ESPA	12	9	1	2	32	11	28
3	Poxyt	12	7	1	4	28	23	22
4	LePa	12	6	2	4	21	21	20
5	NuPS	12	5	4	3	22	14	19
6	LoPa	12	5	1	6	16	19	16
7	Gilla FC	12	4	2	6	25	26	14
8	MPS	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	12	3	3	6	18	33	12
10	EPS Reservi	12	3	3	6	19	35	12
11	GrIFK Reservi	12	3	2	7	20	26	11
12	HooGee	12	3	1	8	18	33	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Poxyt	LePa
HooGee	2-1 W	3-1 W
MPS	2-3 L	1-0 W
LoPa	0-2 L	3-1 W
NuPS	2-1 W	3-3 D
EIF Academy	3-7 L	3-2 W
ESPA	1-4 L	0-2 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	3-0 W	3-1 W
GrIFK Reservi	4-2 W	0-4 L
EPS Reservi	5-0 W	1-2 L
Gilla FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 4 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: LePa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Poxyt

WWWWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
28/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-3	2	2	L
16/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
10/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
05/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-4	3-7	1	4	L
29/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
22/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	5	1	W
13/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
09/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
29/04	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	4	1	W

LePa

WWDWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	1	1	W
03/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
24/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
10/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	4	W
07/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
27/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
22/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
06/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	0	W
03/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Poxyt vs LePa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Poxyt win (49%). Probabilities: Poxyt 49%, draw 21%, LePa 30%.

How many goals are expected in Poxyt vs LePa?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Poxyt 2.28 · LePa 1.75), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Poxyt vs LePa?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.