Football · Finland Kolmonen · 13/08, 19:15

Prediction: HooGee vs LePa

Team pages: HooGee · LePa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.31Total

HooGee1.9

LePa2.41

1X2

30% 21% 49%

HooGee Draw LePa

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

HooGee 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLLL

LePa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLLWWW

Head-to-head

HooGee 1–2 LePa (3 last)

LePa3-1HooGee
LePa3-0HooGee
HooGee4-1LePa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HooGee 1416 · LePa 1541

	HooGee	Draw	LePa
Our model	30%	21%	49%
Market	30%	21%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 4.31 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LePa (rating 1416 vs 1541).
H2H favours LePa: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HooGee	LePa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X4.20

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	1.67 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:59 +14’	3.50	4.33	1.67
16:09 +2’	3.00▼	4.20▼	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HooGee 1–0–2 LePa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LePa	3-1 HT 1-0	HooGee
26/09/19 Finland Kolmonen	LePa	3-0 HT 3-0	HooGee
27/06/19 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	4-1 HT 1-1	LePa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	14	11	1	2	55	20	34
2	ESPA	14	11	1	2	35	11	34
3	LePa	14	8	2	4	29	24	26
4	Poxyt	14	8	1	5	32	29	25
5	NuPS	14	6	4	4	26	19	22
6	LoPa	14	6	1	7	22	23	19
7	Gilla FC	14	5	2	7	29	31	17
8	PPJ/Ruoholahti	14	4	3	7	21	36	15
9	GrIFK Reservi	14	4	2	8	24	28	14
10	MPS	14	3	3	8	12	25	12
11	EPS Reservi	14	3	3	8	20	42	12
12	HooGee	14	3	1	10	23	40	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HooGee	LePa
PPJ/Ruoholahti	2-3 L	3-1 W
NuPS	3-4 L	3-3 D
Poxyt	1-2 L	5-1 W
Gilla FC	3-6 L	2-0 W
EIF Academy	2-4 L	3-2 W
ESPA	0-3 L	0-2 L
MPS	0-2 L	1-0 W
LoPa	2-1 W	3-2 W
GrIFK Reservi	2-1 W	0-4 L
EPS Reservi	2-6 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 8 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: LePa (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HooGee

LWWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
31/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-4	1	4	L
23/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
01/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-6	7	1	L
25/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
12/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	1	3	L
05/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
29/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
21/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
17/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-3	2-6	8	3	L

LePa

DWWLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
31/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
22/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	1	1	W
03/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
24/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
10/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	4	W
07/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
27/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
22/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HooGee vs LePa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LePa win (49%). Probabilities: HooGee 30%, draw 21%, LePa 49%.

How many goals are expected in HooGee vs LePa?

The model expects 4.31 goals (HooGee 1.9 · LePa 2.41), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HooGee vs LePa?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.