Football · China Division 2 · 01/08, 13:30

Prediction: Hubei Istar vs Guangdong Mingtu

Team pages: Hubei Istar · Guangdong Mingtu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Hubei Istar1.38

Guangdong Mingtu1.07

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Hubei Istar Draw Guangdong Mingtu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hubei Istar 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWDWD

Guangdong Mingtu 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDLWDDW

Head-to-head

Hubei Istar 3–0 Guangdong Mingtu (3 last)

Guangdong Mingtu1-2Hubei Istar
Hubei Istar2-1Guangdong Mingtu
Guangdong Mingtu0-1Hubei Istar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hubei Istar 1541 · Guangdong Mingtu 1509

	Hubei Istar	Draw	Guangdong Mingtu
Our model	43%	30%	28%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hubei Istar: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hubei Istar	Guangdong Mingtu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.9	3.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:11 +2’	2.10	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubei Istar 3–0–0 Guangdong Mingtu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 China Division 2	Guangdong Mingtu	1-2 HT 0-0	Hubei Istar
25/10/25 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	2-1 HT 0-0	Guangdong Mingtu
20/09/25 China Division 2	Guangdong Mingtu	0-1 HT 0-1	Hubei Istar

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	17	11	1	5	26	13	34
2	Shenzhen 2028	18	9	6	3	30	22	33
3	Hubei Istar	17	8	6	3	26	18	30
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	18	6	7	5	17	18	25
5	Xiamen Feilu	18	6	7	5	26	21	25
6	Jiangxi Lushan	17	7	4	6	20	16	25
7	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	18	5	9	4	18	24	24
8	Guangdong Mingtu	18	4	9	5	19	19	21
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	18	5	5	8	18	23	20
10	Wenzhou FC	17	3	7	7	11	19	16
11	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	18	3	6	9	10	20	15
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	18	2	7	9	12	20	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hubei Istar	Guangdong Mingtu
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	1-1 D	1-0 W
Wenzhou FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ganzhou Ruishi	4-4 D	2-0 W
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	2-0 W	0-0 D
Xiamen Feilu	0-0 D	1-2 L
Guangzhou Dandelion	3-2 W	2-1 W
Shenzhen 2028	1-2 L	2-2 D
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	0-1 L	1-1 D
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hubei Istar

LWLLWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
18/07	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-4	0	0	D
27/06	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
23/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
19/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	2-0	3-2	0	2	W
14/06	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
26/05	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
22/05	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
17/05	Guangxi Hengchen China FA Cup	0-2	0-4	3	0	L

Guangdong Mingtu

DWDWDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/07	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
11/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-2	2-2	6	4	D
04/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/06	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
13/06	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
27/05	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/05	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-1	1-1	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hubei Istar vs Guangdong Mingtu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hubei Istar win (43%). Probabilities: Hubei Istar 43%, draw 29%, Guangdong Mingtu 28%.

How many goals are expected in Hubei Istar vs Guangdong Mingtu?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Hubei Istar 1.38 · Guangdong Mingtu 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hubei Istar vs Guangdong Mingtu?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.