Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 15/07, 21:30
Prediction: Vinotinto Ecuador vs El Nacional
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Vinotinto Ecuador2.15
El Nacional0.67
1X2
Vinotinto Ecuador
Draw
El Nacional
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Vinotinto Ecuador
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
El Nacional
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vinotinto Ecuador
1–3
El Nacional
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vinotinto Ecuador 1515 · El Nacional 1396
| Vinotinto Ecuador | Draw | El Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 20% | 9% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vinotinto Ecuador (rating 1515 vs 1396).
- H2H favours El Nacional: 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vinotinto Ecuador | El Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 0.4 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.3 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vinotinto Ecuador 1–0–3 El Nacional
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 30/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Vinotinto Ecuador | 0-1 HT 0-0 | El Nacional |
| 13/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 26/01/25 America Friendlies | El Nacional | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Independiente Juniors | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| 5 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Cumbaya | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 18 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 22 | 6 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 27 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vinotinto Ecuador | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| 22 de Julio | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Gualaceo SC | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Cumbaya | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| LDU Portoviejo | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Vinotinto Ecuador (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vinotinto Ecuador
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/07 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/06 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Orense Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 07/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vinotinto Ecuador vs El Nacional?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vinotinto Ecuador win (71%). Probabilities: Vinotinto Ecuador 71%, draw 19%, El Nacional 10%.
How many goals are expected in Vinotinto Ecuador vs El Nacional?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Vinotinto Ecuador 2.15 · El Nacional 0.67), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Vinotinto Ecuador vs El Nacional?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.