Football · China Division 1 · 08/08, 13:00

Prediction: Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai

Team pages: Suzhou Dongwu · Changchun Yatai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Suzhou Dongwu1.33

Changchun Yatai1.4

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Suzhou Dongwu Draw Changchun Yatai

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Suzhou Dongwu 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDLDDW

Changchun Yatai 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWLWLWD

Head-to-head

Suzhou Dongwu 0–1 Changchun Yatai (1 last)

Changchun Yatai1-0Suzhou Dongwu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Suzhou Dongwu 1434 · Changchun Yatai 1501

	Suzhou Dongwu	Draw	Changchun Yatai
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Changchun Yatai (rating 1434 vs 1501).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Suzhou Dongwu	Changchun Yatai
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.98 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.43

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:35 +5’	2.63	3.20	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:04	2.98	3.02	2.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Suzhou Dongwu 0–0–1 Changchun Yatai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	1-0 HT 0-0	Suzhou Dongwu

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	17	11	4	2	31	16	37
2	Nantong Zhiyun	16	8	6	2	20	12	30
3	Shenzhen Juniors	17	8	5	4	27	21	29
4	Guangxi Hengchen	16	8	5	3	30	19	29
5	Yanbian Longding	17	7	8	2	24	14	29
6	Ningbo Professional FC	17	8	3	6	23	22	24
7	Shaanxi Union	16	6	5	5	24	14	23
8	Wuxi Wugo	16	6	5	5	28	18	23
9	Nanjing City	17	5	4	8	16	19	19
10	Changchun Yatai	16	7	2	7	25	30	19
11	Dalian K'un City	16	4	6	6	21	24	18
12	Dingnan Ganlian FC	17	3	9	5	26	34	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	17	2	6	9	10	21	12
14	Suzhou Dongwu	17	3	5	9	12	22	11
15	Foshan Nanshi	17	2	5	10	17	32	11
16	Meizhou Hakka	17	5	2	10	16	32	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Suzhou Dongwu	Changchun Yatai
Meizhou Hakka	1-0 W	3-1 W
Dalian K'un City	0-0 D	2-1 W
Shenzhen Juniors	0-0 D	0-4 L
Yanbian Longding	1-3 L	2-2 D
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Wuxi Wugo	1-3 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Suzhou Dongwu

LLDLLDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
26/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
17/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
11/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
04/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
28/06	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
21/06	Yunnan Yukun China FA Cup	2-3	2-4	4	2	L
13/06	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	0	5	D
30/05	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
24/05	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-1	0-3	5	3	L

Changchun Yatai

WDLDWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L
05/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
27/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
30/05	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
16/05	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China FA Cup	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
09/05	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-1	3-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Changchun Yatai win (38%). Probabilities: Suzhou Dongwu 34%, draw 28%, Changchun Yatai 38%.

How many goals are expected in Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Suzhou Dongwu 1.33 · Changchun Yatai 1.4), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.