Football · China Division 1 · 24/10, 09:30

Prediction: Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Hakka

Team pages: Changchun Yatai · Meizhou Hakka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Changchun Yatai2.19

Meizhou Hakka1.2

1X2

59% 22% 19%

Changchun Yatai Draw Meizhou Hakka

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Yatai 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDLDDD

Meizhou Hakka 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLDLL

Head-to-head

Changchun Yatai 3–3 Meizhou Hakka (6 last)

Meizhou Hakka1-3Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai1-0Meizhou Hakka
Meizhou Hakka1-3Changchun Yatai
Meizhou Hakka2-1Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai0-1Meizhou Hakka
Meizhou Hakka4-2Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Yatai 1509 · Meizhou Hakka 1424

	Changchun Yatai	Draw	Meizhou Hakka
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Changchun Yatai (rating 1509 vs 1424).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Yatai	Meizhou Hakka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	2.5 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.51 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:00 +6’	1.53	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:23 +46’	1.57	4.51	4.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Yatai 3–0–3 Meizhou Hakka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 China Division 1	Meizhou Hakka	1-3 HT 1-2	Changchun Yatai
16/08/25 China Super League	Changchun Yatai	1-0 HT 1-0	Meizhou Hakka
11/04/25 China Super League	Meizhou Hakka	1-3 HT 0-2	Changchun Yatai
17/08/24 China Super League	Meizhou Hakka	2-1 HT 2-0	Changchun Yatai
26/04/24 China Super League	Changchun Yatai	0-1 HT 0-0	Meizhou Hakka
08/08/23 China Super League	Meizhou Hakka	4-2 HT 2-1	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	27	18	6	3	55	26	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	14	9	4	36	20	51
3	Guangxi Hengchen	27	13	8	6	43	30	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	12	10	5	42	31	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	13	6	8	51	28	45
6	Yanbian Longding	27	10	9	8	39	29	39
7	Wuxi Wugo	27	10	6	11	41	33	36
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	27	9	8	10	23	26	35
9	Changchun Yatai	27	10	6	11	41	44	32
10	Ningbo Professional FC	27	9	7	11	28	32	31
11	Dalian K'un City	27	7	10	10	32	39	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	7	11	9	31	36	29
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	27	5	12	10	38	49	27
14	Nanjing City	27	6	7	14	22	37	25
15	Meizhou Hakka	27	7	4	16	25	54	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	27	3	7	17	26	59	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Yatai	Meizhou Hakka
Guangxi Hengchen	2-2 D	0-1 L
Nantong Zhiyun	0-2 L	0-1 L
Shenzhen Juniors	1-1 D	1-5 L
Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Ningbo Professional FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-3 L	1-5 L
Foshan Nanshi	6-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changchun Yatai

LWLWWDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
10/10	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	2	L

Meizhou Hakka

WLLDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-1	12	2	L
10/10	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	0-3	17	0	L
06/10	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	1-3	9	3	L
13/09	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-5	1	2	L
30/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	1-5	5	2	L
15/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
08/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	3-2	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Hakka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changchun Yatai win (59%). Probabilities: Changchun Yatai 59%, draw 22%, Meizhou Hakka 19%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Hakka?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Changchun Yatai 2.19 · Meizhou Hakka 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Hakka?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.