Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 25/07, 20:00

Prediction: Nacao vs Hercilio Luz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Nacao0.88

Hercilio Luz1.51

1X2

22% 27% 52%

Nacao Draw Hercilio Luz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nacao 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDLLWDW

Hercilio Luz 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Nacao 0–1–5 Hercilio Luz (6 last)

Hercilio Luz2-1Nacao
Hercilio Luz1-0Nacao
Hercilio Luz2-2Nacao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacao 1491 · Hercilio Luz 1600

	Nacao	Draw	Hercilio Luz
Our model	21%	28%	51%
Market	22%	25%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hercilio Luz (rating 1491 vs 1600).
H2H favours Hercilio Luz: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacao	Hercilio Luz
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	6.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.08 ★
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	1.83 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.71

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:15 +3’	3.75	3.30	1.83
09:14 +4’	4.00▲	3.50▲	1.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:18 +1’	4.08	3.26	1.74
09:18	4.08	3.36▲	1.71▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacao 0–1–5 Hercilio Luz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Brazil Catarinense 2	Hercilio Luz	2-1 HT 1-0	Nacao
28/09/24 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina	Hercilio Luz	1-0 HT 0-0	Nacao
16/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Catarinense	Hercilio Luz	2-2 HT 0-1	Nacao
17/09/23 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina	Nacao	0-1 HT 0-0	Hercilio Luz
12/10/22 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina	Nacao	1-2 HT 1-1	Hercilio Luz
03/09/22 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina	Hercilio Luz	3-0 HT 3-0	Nacao

Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	17	12	3	2	33	9	39
2	CA Metropolitano	17	11	2	4	33	18	35
3	Caravaggio SC	17	9	5	3	44	19	32
4	Blumenau EC	17	8	4	5	32	15	28
5	Tubarao	17	6	5	6	23	19	23
6	Fluminense SC	17	6	3	8	16	22	21
7	Nacao	17	5	6	6	18	24	21
8	Guarani de Palhoca	17	5	5	7	22	24	20
9	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	17	5	2	10	16	23	17
10	SC Jaragua	17	0	1	16	6	70	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacao	Hercilio Luz
Blumenau EC	2-0 W	2-0 W
Caravaggio SC	2-2 D	0-0 D
SC Jaragua	2-0 W	2-0 W
Fluminense SC	1-2 L	4-2 W
Tubarao	0-1 L	2-0 W
CA Metropolitano	0-0 D	3-0 W
Guarani de Palhoca	0-0 D	2-1 W
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hercilio Luz (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacao

LLWDDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
18/07	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	2-2	6	1	D
15/07	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
12/07	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
05/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/07	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
21/06	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
18/06	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
07/06	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	1-2	7	8	L
03/06	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-3	0-6	1	4	L

Hercilio Luz

DWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
19/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
16/07	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
12/07	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
04/07	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
28/06	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	4-2	6	6	W
21/06	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	3-0	4	11	W
14/06	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
07/06	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
31/05	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	2-2	5	11	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacao vs Hercilio Luz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hercilio Luz win (52%). Probabilities: Nacao 22%, draw 27%, Hercilio Luz 52%.

How many goals are expected in Nacao vs Hercilio Luz?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Nacao 0.88 · Hercilio Luz 1.51), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacao vs Hercilio Luz?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.