Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 25/07, 20:00

Prediction: CA Metropolitano vs Fluminense SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

CA Metropolitano2.1

Fluminense SC0.89

1X2

64% 23% 13%

CA Metropolitano Draw Fluminense SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

CA Metropolitano 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Fluminense SC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWDLW

Head-to-head

CA Metropolitano 5–1 Fluminense SC (6 last)

Fluminense SC1-3CA Metropolitano
CA Metropolitano1-0Fluminense SC
Fluminense SC2-3CA Metropolitano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Metropolitano 1561 · Fluminense SC 1476

	CA Metropolitano	Draw	Fluminense SC
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	63%	24%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Metropolitano (rating 1561 vs 1476).
H2H favours CA Metropolitano: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Metropolitano	Fluminense SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	0/63/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 6.1	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X3.80

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.30▼	Bet365 1.30
X	3.80 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 9.71 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:15 +3’	1.42	3.80	7.00
13:29 +10’	1.30▼	5.00▲	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:18 +1’	1.37	3.99	6.79
13:38	1.24▼	4.72▲	9.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Metropolitano 5–0–1 Fluminense SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Brazil Catarinense 2	Fluminense SC	1-3 HT 1-2	CA Metropolitano
06/07/25 Brazil Catarinense 2	CA Metropolitano	1-0 HT 1-0	Fluminense SC
14/11/20 Brazil Catarinense 2	Fluminense SC	2-3 HT 2-2	CA Metropolitano
11/10/18 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina	CA Metropolitano	1-0 HT 0-0	Fluminense SC
22/07/18 Brazil Catarinense 2	CA Metropolitano	3-0 HT 1-0	Fluminense SC
21/06/18 Brazil Catarinense 2	Fluminense SC	2-1 HT 1-0	CA Metropolitano

Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	17	12	3	2	33	9	39
2	CA Metropolitano	17	11	2	4	33	18	35
3	Caravaggio SC	17	9	5	3	44	19	32
4	Blumenau EC	17	8	4	5	32	15	28
5	Tubarao	17	6	5	6	23	19	23
6	Fluminense SC	17	6	3	8	16	22	21
7	Nacao	17	5	6	6	18	24	21
8	Guarani de Palhoca	17	5	5	7	22	24	20
9	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	17	5	2	10	16	23	17
10	SC Jaragua	17	0	1	16	6	70	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Metropolitano	Fluminense SC
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	2-0 W	0-3 L
SC Jaragua	6-1 W	1-0 W
Blumenau EC	1-4 L	1-1 D
Tubarao	3-2 W	2-1 W
Caravaggio SC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Nacao	0-0 D	2-1 W
Hercilio Luz	0-3 L	2-4 L
Guarani de Palhoca	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA Metropolitano (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Metropolitano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/07	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	–	6-1	12	2	W
15/07	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-2	1-4	10	6	L
12/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
05/07	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-1	8	12	W
02/07	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
21/06	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	0-3	0	11	L
14/06	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	2-1	3-1	6	3	W
11/06	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
30/05	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	2-0	3	4	W

Fluminense SC

LLLWLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/07	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	0-3	0-3	4	6	L
15/07	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
12/07	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/07	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
28/06	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-4	2	6	L
21/06	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
14/06	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
11/06	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	1-2	1-3	10	2	L
31/05	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-1	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Metropolitano vs Fluminense SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Metropolitano win (64%). Probabilities: CA Metropolitano 64%, draw 23%, Fluminense SC 13%.

How many goals are expected in CA Metropolitano vs Fluminense SC?

The model expects 2.99 goals (CA Metropolitano 2.1 · Fluminense SC 0.89), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Metropolitano vs Fluminense SC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.