Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 23/07, 00:30

Prediction: Hercilio Luz vs Caravaggio SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Hercilio Luz2.02

Caravaggio SC1.03

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Hercilio Luz Draw Caravaggio SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hercilio Luz 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWWW

Caravaggio SC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLWWD

Head-to-head

Hercilio Luz 0–1–1 Caravaggio SC (2 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hercilio Luz 1611 · Caravaggio SC 1547

	Hercilio Luz	Draw	Caravaggio SC
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	57%	27%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hercilio Luz (rating 1611 vs 1547).
Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hercilio Luz	Caravaggio SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.6	2.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/33/11%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.9 / 0.7	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.30

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.57▼	Bet365 1.57
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	4.50 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +24’	1.70	3.25	4.50
17:00 +6’	1.57▼	3.30▲	5.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hercilio Luz 0–1–1 Caravaggio SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2	Caravaggio SC	2-2 HT 1-0	Hercilio Luz
02/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Catarinense	Caravaggio SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Hercilio Luz

Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	16	12	2	2	33	9	38
2	CA Metropolitano	16	10	2	4	31	18	32
3	Caravaggio SC	16	9	4	3	44	19	31
4	Blumenau EC	16	8	4	4	32	13	28
5	Tubarao	16	6	5	5	22	17	23
6	Fluminense SC	16	5	3	8	14	21	18
7	Nacao	16	4	6	6	16	24	18
8	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	16	5	2	9	16	21	17
9	Guarani de Palhoca	16	4	5	7	15	24	17
10	SC Jaragua	16	0	1	15	6	63	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hercilio Luz	Caravaggio SC
Tubarao	2-0 W	2-1 W
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	1-0 W	3-0 W
Blumenau EC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Guarani de Palhoca	2-1 W	2-3 L
Fluminense SC	4-2 W	1-0 W
CA Metropolitano	3-0 W	1-2 L
SC Jaragua	2-0 W	9-0 W
Nacao	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hercilio Luz (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hercilio Luz

WDWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
16/07	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
12/07	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
04/07	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
28/06	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	4-2	6	6	W
21/06	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	3-0	4	11	W
14/06	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
07/06	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
31/05	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	2-2	5	11	D
28/05	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	–	2-0	–	–	W

Caravaggio SC

WDWWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
16/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
12/07	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	–	9-0	–	–	W
05/07	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-2	6	12	L
28/06	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	0-2	2-3	5	9	L
24/06	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
14/06	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
07/06	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
31/05	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-2	1	11	D
28/05	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	4-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hercilio Luz vs Caravaggio SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hercilio Luz win (58%). Probabilities: Hercilio Luz 58%, draw 25%, Caravaggio SC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Hercilio Luz vs Caravaggio SC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Hercilio Luz 2.02 · Caravaggio SC 1.03), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hercilio Luz vs Caravaggio SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.