Prediction: Guarani de Palhoca vs Hercilio Luz
Expected goals: 2.79 (Guarani de Palhoca 1.02 · Hercilio Luz 1.78). The model gives 21% home, 25% draw, 54% away. Over 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Guarani de Palhoca sits at 4-3-3 (W-D-L), while Hercilio Luz arrives on a 7-1-2 run. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Guarani de Palhoca and 3 for Hercilio Luz, with 1 draw.
| Guarani de Palhoca | Draw | Hercilio Luz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hercilio Luz (rating 1513 vs 1566).
- H2H favours Hercilio Luz: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Guarani de Palhoca | Hercilio Luz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 2.2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/33/44% | 38/50/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.6 | 3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0 | 6.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani de Palhoca 0–1–3 Hercilio Luz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Hercilio Luz | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Guarani de Palhoca |
| 01/12/20 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Hercilio Luz | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Guarani de Palhoca |
| 31/08/17 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Guarani de Palhoca | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hercilio Luz |
| 20/07/17 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Hercilio Luz | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Guarani de Palhoca |
Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hercilio Luz | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 26 |
| 2 | Caravaggio SC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | CA Metropolitano | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Blumenau EC | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoca | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 15 |
| 7 | Nacao | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 14 |
| 8 | Fluminense SC | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 13 |
| 9 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 7 |
| 10 | SC Jaragua | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Guarani de Palhoca | Hercilio Luz |
|---|---|---|
| Caravaggio SC | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Nacao | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| CA Metropolitano | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Tubarao | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| SC Jaragua | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Blumenau EC | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Fluminense SC | 1-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 6 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Hercilio Luz (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guarani de Palhoca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 21/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-2 | 0-6 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 06/05 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
Hercilio Luz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 14/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 28/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 07/05 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guarani de Palhoca vs Hercilio Luz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hercilio Luz win (54%). Probabilities: Guarani de Palhoca 21%, draw 25%, Hercilio Luz 54%.
How many goals are expected in Guarani de Palhoca vs Hercilio Luz?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Guarani de Palhoca 1.02 · Hercilio Luz 1.78), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Guarani de Palhoca vs Hercilio Luz?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.