Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 15/07, 20:00
Prediction: Fluminense SC vs Guarani de Palhoca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Fluminense SC1.25
Guarani de Palhoca1
1X2
Fluminense SC
Draw
Guarani de Palhoca
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fluminense SC
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Guarani de Palhoca
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fluminense SC
2–1–3
Guarani de Palhoca
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fluminense SC 1459 · Guarani de Palhoca 1498
| Fluminense SC | Draw | Guarani de Palhoca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Guarani de Palhoca: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fluminense SC | Guarani de Palhoca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/63/38% | 22/56/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fluminense SC 2–1–3 Guarani de Palhoca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Guarani de Palhoca | 1-0 | Fluminense SC |
| 28/08/21 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Guarani de Palhoca | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Fluminense SC |
| 18/07/21 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Fluminense SC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Guarani de Palhoca |
| 07/11/20 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Fluminense SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Guarani de Palhoca |
| 04/08/19 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Fluminense SC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Guarani de Palhoca |
| 22/06/19 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Guarani de Palhoca | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Fluminense SC |
Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hercilio Luz | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 32 |
| 2 | CA Metropolitano | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Caravaggio SC | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Blumenau EC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Fluminense SC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 7 | Guarani de Palhoca | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 15 |
| 8 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 14 |
| 9 | Nacao | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 14 |
| 10 | SC Jaragua | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fluminense SC | Guarani de Palhoca |
|---|---|---|
| Nacao | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Blumenau EC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Hercilio Luz | 2-4 L | 1-2 L |
| SC Jaragua | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Caravaggio SC | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| CA Metropolitano | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Tubarao | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Guarani de Palhoca (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fluminense SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 11 | D |
Guarani de Palhoca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 21/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fluminense SC vs Guarani de Palhoca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fluminense SC win (41%). Probabilities: Fluminense SC 41%, draw 30%, Guarani de Palhoca 29%.
How many goals are expected in Fluminense SC vs Guarani de Palhoca?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Fluminense SC 1.25 · Guarani de Palhoca 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fluminense SC vs Guarani de Palhoca?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.