Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 16/07, 00:30
Prediction: Hercilio Luz vs Juventus Jaragua Do Sul
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Hercilio Luz2.07
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul0.59
1X2
Hercilio Luz
Draw
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Hercilio Luz
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hercilio Luz
3–1–2
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hercilio Luz 1592 · Juventus Jaragua Do Sul 1466
| Hercilio Luz | Draw | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 20% | 9% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hercilio Luz (rating 1592 vs 1466).
- H2H favours Hercilio Luz: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hercilio Luz | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/56/11% | 11/56/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.4 | 2.7 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.7 / 0.4 | 5.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hercilio Luz 3–1–2 Juventus Jaragua Do Sul
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Hercilio Luz |
| 23/01/22 Brazil Campeonato Catarinense | Hercilio Luz | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul |
| 07/11/21 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina | Hercilio Luz | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul |
| 04/11/21 Brazil Matches | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Hercilio Luz |
| 03/03/21 Brazil Campeonato Catarinense | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hercilio Luz |
| 14/09/17 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Hercilio Luz | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul |
Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hercilio Luz | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 32 |
| 2 | CA Metropolitano | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Caravaggio SC | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Blumenau EC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Fluminense SC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 7 | Guarani de Palhoca | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 15 |
| 8 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 14 |
| 9 | Nacao | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 14 |
| 10 | SC Jaragua | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hercilio Luz | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul |
|---|---|---|
| Blumenau EC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Guarani de Palhoca | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Fluminense SC | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| CA Metropolitano | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| SC Jaragua | 2-0 W | 8-1 W |
| Nacao | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Caravaggio SC | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Tubarao | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Hercilio Luz (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hercilio Luz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 04/07 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 14/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 28/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 08/07 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 04/07 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
4-0 | 8-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 18/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hercilio Luz vs Juventus Jaragua Do Sul?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hercilio Luz win (72%). Probabilities: Hercilio Luz 72%, draw 19%, Juventus Jaragua Do Sul 9%.
How many goals are expected in Hercilio Luz vs Juventus Jaragua Do Sul?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Hercilio Luz 2.07 · Juventus Jaragua Do Sul 0.59), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hercilio Luz vs Juventus Jaragua Do Sul?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.