Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 18/07, 22:00

Prediction: Nacao vs Caravaggio SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Nacao1.02

Caravaggio SC1.95

1X2

18% 25% 58%

Nacao Draw Caravaggio SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nacao 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDDLLW

Caravaggio SC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Nacao 3–1–2 Caravaggio SC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacao 1473 · Caravaggio SC 1551

	Nacao	Draw	Caravaggio SC
Our model	18%	24%	58%
Market	17%	26%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caravaggio SC (rating 1473 vs 1551).
H2H favours Nacao: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacao	Caravaggio SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	2.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	25/63/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.50

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.67 → 1.57▼	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:12 +14’	4.20	3.50	1.67
21:17 +5’	5.25▲	3.50	1.57▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacao 3–1–2 Caravaggio SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2	Caravaggio SC	4-1 HT 2-0	Nacao
05/08/23 Brazil Catarinense 2	Nacao	1-0 HT 1-0	Caravaggio SC
30/07/23 Brazil Catarinense 2	Caravaggio SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Nacao
16/07/23 Brazil Catarinense 2	Caravaggio SC	3-3 HT 3-2	Nacao
13/08/22 Brazil Catarinense 2	Nacao	4-1 HT 2-1	Caravaggio SC
07/08/22 Brazil Catarinense 2	Caravaggio SC	0-1 HT 0-1	Nacao

Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	15	11	2	2	31	9	35
2	Caravaggio SC	15	9	3	3	42	17	30
3	CA Metropolitano	15	9	2	4	25	17	29
4	Blumenau EC	15	8	3	4	31	12	27
5	Tubarao	15	6	5	4	22	15	23
6	Fluminense SC	15	5	3	7	14	18	18
7	Nacao	15	4	5	6	14	22	17
8	Guarani de Palhoca	15	4	4	7	14	23	16
9	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	15	4	2	9	13	21	14
10	SC Jaragua	15	0	1	14	5	57	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacao	Caravaggio SC
SC Jaragua	2-0 W	9-0 W
Fluminense SC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Tubarao	0-1 L	2-1 W
CA Metropolitano	0-0 D	1-2 L
Guarani de Palhoca	0-0 D	2-3 L
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	1-0 W	3-0 W
Hercilio Luz	1-2 L	2-2 D
Blumenau EC	0-6 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Caravaggio SC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacao

WLLLWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
12/07	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
05/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/07	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
21/06	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
18/06	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
07/06	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	1-2	7	8	L
03/06	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-3	0-6	1	4	L
28/05	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-2	1-4	3	2	L
21/05	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	–	3-0	–	–	W

Caravaggio SC

DWDWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
12/07	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	–	9-0	–	–	W
05/07	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-2	6	12	L
28/06	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	0-2	2-3	5	9	L
24/06	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
14/06	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
07/06	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
31/05	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-2	1	11	D
28/05	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	4-1	4	2	W
24/05	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacao vs Caravaggio SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caravaggio SC win (58%). Probabilities: Nacao 18%, draw 25%, Caravaggio SC 58%.

How many goals are expected in Nacao vs Caravaggio SC?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Nacao 1.02 · Caravaggio SC 1.95), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacao vs Caravaggio SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.