Prediction: Tubarao vs Nacao
Expected goals: 2.47 (Tubarao 1.83 · Nacao 0.65). The model gives 65% home, 23% draw, 12% away. Over 2.25 goals (53%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.
Recent form leaves Tubarao with 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Nacao has piled up 2-4-4 in the same span. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Tubarao won 1 and Nacao 3, with 1 draw.
| Tubarao | Draw | Nacao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | 65% | 23% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tubarao (rating 1540 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Nacao: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tubarao | Nacao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 0.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/75/0% | 22/33/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.7 | 2 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.3 | 5.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tubarao 1–1–3 Nacao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Nacao | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tubarao |
| 27/07/25 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Nacao | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Tubarao |
| 16/07/22 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Tubarao | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Nacao |
| 05/09/21 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Tubarao | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nacao |
| 28/07/21 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Nacao | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Tubarao |
Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hercilio Luz | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 26 |
| 2 | Caravaggio SC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | CA Metropolitano | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Blumenau EC | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoca | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 15 |
| 7 | Nacao | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 14 |
| 8 | Fluminense SC | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 13 |
| 9 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 7 |
| 10 | SC Jaragua | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tubarao | Nacao |
|---|---|---|
| SC Jaragua | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Blumenau EC | 2-3 L | 0-6 L |
| Guarani de Palhoca | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Fluminense SC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Hercilio Luz | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Caravaggio SC | 2-2 D | 1-4 L |
| CA Metropolitano | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Tubarao (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tubarao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/06 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 28/05 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 13/05 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 06/05 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Nacao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 18/06 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 07/06 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 03/06 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-3 | 0-6 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 21/05 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 11 | D |
| 13/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 06/05 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tubarao vs Nacao?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tubarao win (65%). Probabilities: Tubarao 65%, draw 23%, Nacao 12%.
How many goals are expected in Tubarao vs Nacao?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Tubarao 1.83 · Nacao 0.65), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tubarao vs Nacao?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.