Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 15/07, 20:00
Prediction: Blumenau EC vs CA Metropolitano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Blumenau EC1.46
CA Metropolitano1.03
1X2
Blumenau EC
Draw
CA Metropolitano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Blumenau EC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
CA Metropolitano
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Blumenau EC
2–1–3
CA Metropolitano
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blumenau EC 1510 · CA Metropolitano 1567
| Blumenau EC | Draw | CA Metropolitano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Metropolitano (rating 1510 vs 1567).
- H2H favours CA Metropolitano: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Blumenau EC | CA Metropolitano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 44/44/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 8.4 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.7 | 6.7 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blumenau EC 2–1–3 CA Metropolitano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | CA Metropolitano | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Blumenau EC |
| 31/05/25 Brazil Catarinense 2 | CA Metropolitano | 0-1 | Blumenau EC |
| 26/05/24 Brazil Catarinense 2 | CA Metropolitano | 0-2 | Blumenau EC |
| 31/07/22 Brazil Catarinense 2 | CA Metropolitano | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Blumenau EC |
| 14/10/18 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina | Blumenau EC | 2-5 HT 1-3 | CA Metropolitano |
| 03/10/18 Brazil Matches | CA Metropolitano | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Blumenau EC |
Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hercilio Luz | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 32 |
| 2 | CA Metropolitano | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Caravaggio SC | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Blumenau EC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Fluminense SC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 7 | Guarani de Palhoca | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 15 |
| 8 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 14 |
| 9 | Nacao | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 14 |
| 10 | SC Jaragua | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Blumenau EC | CA Metropolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Hercilio Luz | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Fluminense SC | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Caravaggio SC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Tubarao | 3-2 W | 3-2 W |
| SC Jaragua | 6-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Nacao | 6-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blumenau EC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 08/07 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 04/07 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 9 | D |
| 24/06 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 17/06 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
4-0 | 6-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
3-0 | 6-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
CA Metropolitano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 12 | W |
| 02/07 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 11 | L |
| 14/06 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 12 | W |
| 17/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blumenau EC vs CA Metropolitano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Blumenau EC win (46%). Probabilities: Blumenau EC 46%, draw 29%, CA Metropolitano 25%.
How many goals are expected in Blumenau EC vs CA Metropolitano?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Blumenau EC 1.46 · CA Metropolitano 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Blumenau EC vs CA Metropolitano?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.