Football · South Korea K League 1 · 18/10, 07:00

Prediction: Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Gwangju FC

Team pages: Daejeon Hana Citizen · Gwangju FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Daejeon Hana Citizen2.36

Gwangju FC1.13

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Daejeon Hana Citizen Draw Gwangju FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Daejeon Hana Citizen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWDDW

Gwangju FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDLDDW

Head-to-head

Daejeon Hana Citizen 2–3–1 Gwangju FC (6 last)

Daejeon Hana Citizen2-0Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC0-5Daejeon Hana Citizen
Gwangju FC2-0Daejeon Hana Citizen
Gwangju FC2-2Daejeon Hana Citizen
Daejeon Hana Citizen1-1Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC0-0Daejeon Hana Citizen

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daejeon Hana Citizen (rating 1580 vs 1451).
H2H favours Daejeon Hana Citizen: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Daejeon Hana Citizen	Gwangju FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.91

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:22

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.39 → 1.39	Pinn 1.39
X	5.03 → 5.03	Pinn 5.03
2	7.15 → 7.15	Pinn 7.15

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +308’	1.39	5.03	7.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Daejeon Hana Citizen 2–3–1 Gwangju FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 South Korea K League 1	Daejeon Hana Citizen	2-0 HT 0-0	Gwangju FC
02/05/26 South Korea K League 1	Gwangju FC	0-5 HT 0-2	Daejeon Hana Citizen
17/08/25 South Korea K League 1	Gwangju FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Daejeon Hana Citizen
22/06/25 South Korea K League 1	Gwangju FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Daejeon Hana Citizen
29/03/25 South Korea K League 1	Daejeon Hana Citizen	1-1 HT 0-1	Gwangju FC
02/11/24 South Korea K League 1	Gwangju FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Daejeon Hana Citizen

Standings · South Korea K League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Seoul	31	20	5	6	58	26	65
2	Ulsan HD	31	14	5	12	48	44	47
3	Gangwon FC	31	11	13	7	38	28	46
4	Jeju SK	31	12	10	9	36	31	46
5	Jeonbuk Motors	31	11	11	9	39	30	44
6	Daejeon Hana Citizen	31	11	10	10	48	38	43
7	Incheon Utd	31	11	9	11	39	33	42
8	FC Anyang	31	10	11	10	39	47	41
9	Pohang Steelers	31	11	7	13	28	37	40
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	31	5	18	8	30	37	33
11	Bucheon	31	7	11	13	31	42	32
12	Gwangju FC	31	2	12	17	25	66	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Daejeon Hana Citizen	Gwangju FC
Jeonbuk Motors	2-1 W	2-2 D
Incheon Utd	1-1 D	0-1 L
Pohang Steelers	2-2 D	1-2 L
FC Anyang	3-2 W	1-1 D
Bucheon	5-0 W	0-0 D
Jeju SK	1-3 L	0-1 L
Ulsan HD	2-1 W	4-3 W
FC Seoul	2-4 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Daejeon Hana Citizen (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Daejeon Hana Citizen

WWLWLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
20/09	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
12/09	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-2	11	3	D
09/09	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
05/09	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
30/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/08	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
15/08	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	1-0	2-4	8	6	L
08/08	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-0	8	2	W

Gwangju FC

DLLDLDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	2-2	4-3	2	1	W
20/09	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
13/09	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
09/09	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
06/09	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	0-1	2-2	1	1	D
30/08	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	1-3	2-5	4	3	L
26/08	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
23/08	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
15/08	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
08/08	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Gwangju FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Daejeon Hana Citizen win (64%). Probabilities: Daejeon Hana Citizen 64%, draw 20%, Gwangju FC 16%.

How many goals are expected in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Gwangju FC?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Daejeon Hana Citizen 2.36 · Gwangju FC 1.13), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Gwangju FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.