Football · New Zealand Central League · 22/08, 02:30

Prediction: Western Suburbs vs Waterside Karori

Team pages: Western Suburbs · Waterside Karori

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Western Suburbs2.5

Waterside Karori0.86

1X2

73% 16% 11%

Western Suburbs Draw Waterside Karori

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Western Suburbs 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDWWDW

Waterside Karori 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLWWDL

Head-to-head

Western Suburbs 4–1–1 Waterside Karori (6 last)

Waterside Karori2-2Western Suburbs
Waterside Karori0-6Western Suburbs
Western Suburbs6-1Waterside Karori
Waterside Karori2-4Western Suburbs
Western Suburbs2-3Waterside Karori
Western Suburbs2-1Waterside Karori

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Western Suburbs 1532 · Waterside Karori 1497

	Western Suburbs	Draw	Waterside Karori
Our model	72%	18%	10%
Market	74%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Western Suburbs: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Western Suburbs	Waterside Karori
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	1 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +8’	1.22	6.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Suburbs 4–1–1 Waterside Karori

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 New Zealand Central League	Waterside Karori	2-2 HT 2-1	Western Suburbs
19/07/25 New Zealand Central League	Waterside Karori	0-6 HT 0-4	Western Suburbs
26/04/25 New Zealand Central League	Western Suburbs	6-1 HT 4-1	Waterside Karori
13/07/24 New Zealand Central League	Waterside Karori	2-4 HT 1-2	Western Suburbs
20/04/24 New Zealand Central League	Western Suburbs	2-3 HT 0-1	Waterside Karori
06/08/23 New Zealand Central League	Western Suburbs	2-1 HT 1-1	Waterside Karori

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	16	13	2	1	44	12	41
2	Wellington Olympic	16	12	2	2	50	15	38
3	Miramar Rangers	16	11	4	1	43	11	37
4	Western Suburbs	16	9	5	2	29	13	32
5	Upper Hutt City	16	6	0	10	27	36	18
6	Island Bay United	16	5	1	10	24	35	16
7	Waterside Karori	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
8	Petone FC	16	3	3	10	14	29	12
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	16	2	5	9	15	22	11
10	FC Western	16	1	3	12	10	60	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Western Suburbs	Waterside Karori
Petone FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-2 D	0-0 D
Upper Hutt City	2-1 W	0-6 L
Island Bay United	2-0 W	4-0 W
FC Western	1-1 D	3-2 W
Wellington Olympic	1-2 L	0-3 L
Miramar Rangers	0-2 L	0-0 D
Napier City Rovers	3-3 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Western Suburbs (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Western Suburbs

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
01/08	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
18/07	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
11/07	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
28/06	FC Western New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
06/06	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-2	3-3	2	4	D
23/05	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
16/05	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	1-2	2-2	8	1	D

Waterside Karori

DLDWDLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
01/08	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
19/07	FC Western New Zealand Central League	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
11/07	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
27/06	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	0-5	0-6	2	1	L
20/06	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
06/06	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	3-0	4-0	7	4	W
01/06	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Cup	–	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
16/05	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	2-1	2-2	1	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Western Suburbs vs Waterside Karori?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Western Suburbs win (73%). Probabilities: Western Suburbs 73%, draw 16%, Waterside Karori 11%.

How many goals are expected in Western Suburbs vs Waterside Karori?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Western Suburbs 2.5 · Waterside Karori 0.86), with a 57% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Western Suburbs vs Waterside Karori?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.