Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: Valmiera FC vs SK Super Nova II

Team pages: Valmiera FC · SK Super Nova II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Valmiera FC2.73

SK Super Nova II0.73

1X2

79% 13% 7%

Valmiera FC Draw SK Super Nova II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Valmiera FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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SK Super Nova II 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Valmiera FC 0–1–0 SK Super Nova II (1 last)

SK Super Nova II0-0Valmiera FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valmiera FC 1585 · SK Super Nova II 1451

	Valmiera FC	Draw	SK Super Nova II
Our model	79%	15%	7%
Market	80%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1585 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valmiera FC	SK Super Nova II
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.2	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.3	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.98

2 (+2.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +6’	1.14	7.50	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera FC 0–1–0 SK Super Nova II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	SK Super Nova II	0-0 HT 0-0	Valmiera FC

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	21	17	3	1	89	17	54
2	Valmiera FC	21	16	3	2	60	23	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	21	15	4	2	43	25	49
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	21	14	5	2	50	23	47
5	JDFS Alberts	21	11	4	6	42	31	37
6	Marupes SC	21	9	2	10	34	32	29
7	Skanstes SK	21	8	2	11	43	42	26
8	Riga FC II	21	7	5	9	29	37	26
9	SK Super Nova II	21	6	7	8	28	32	25
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	21	5	3	13	27	60	18
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	21	4	4	13	29	57	16
12	RFS II	21	4	3	14	34	62	15
13	JFK Ventspils	21	3	6	12	21	41	15
14	Rezeknes FA	21	1	3	17	17	64	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valmiera FC	SK Super Nova II
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	2-4 L	0-3 L
JDFS Alberts	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rezeknes FA	6-1 W	2-2 D
Marupes SC	4-1 W	1-2 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	4-1 W	0-2 L
RFS II	2-1 W	1-1 D
Riga FC II	3-0 W	1-2 L
Skanstes SK	3-0 W	1-1 D
Saldus SS/Leevon	4-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera FC (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valmiera FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-4	6	4	L
12/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-2	1	10	D
30/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	6-1	–	–	W
22/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
08/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
01/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	7	W
27/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
18/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
05/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W

SK Super Nova II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
11/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	3	3	L
23/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
15/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
08/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
31/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	10	L
25/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
19/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
05/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valmiera FC vs SK Super Nova II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valmiera FC win (79%). Probabilities: Valmiera FC 79%, draw 13%, SK Super Nova II 7%.

How many goals are expected in Valmiera FC vs SK Super Nova II?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Valmiera FC 2.73 · SK Super Nova II 0.73), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Valmiera FC vs SK Super Nova II?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.