Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: JFK Ventspils vs SK Super Nova II

Team pages: JFK Ventspils · SK Super Nova II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

JFK Ventspils1.42

SK Super Nova II1.42

1X2

37% 26% 37%

JFK Ventspils Draw SK Super Nova II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JFK Ventspils 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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SK Super Nova II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils 0–1 SK Super Nova II (1 last)

SK Super Nova II3-1JFK Ventspils

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JFK Ventspils 1471 · SK Super Nova II 1492

	JFK Ventspils	Draw	SK Super Nova II
Our model	36%	27%	36%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JFK Ventspils	SK Super Nova II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.2	2.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 3.03 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:17 +8’	2.38	3.60	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:00 +2’	1.99	3.42	3.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JFK Ventspils 0–0–1 SK Super Nova II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	SK Super Nova II	3-1 HT 1-0	JFK Ventspils

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	15	12	2	1	40	13	38
2	Metta/LU	15	12	2	1	57	13	38
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	15	10	3	2	26	18	33
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	15	9	5	1	30	13	32
5	JDFS Alberts	15	7	4	4	30	23	25
6	Marupes SC	15	7	1	7	26	24	22
7	Riga FC II	15	6	2	7	23	28	20
8	SK Super Nova II	15	5	5	5	21	23	20
9	Skanstes SK	15	5	1	9	25	31	16
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	15	3	3	9	19	41	12
11	RFS II	15	3	3	9	21	33	12
12	JFK Ventspils	15	2	5	8	18	26	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	15	2	4	9	18	39	10
14	Rezeknes FA	15	1	2	12	12	41	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JFK Ventspils	SK Super Nova II
FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-2 L	2-0 W
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-1 D	0-3 L
JDFS Alberts	1-3 L	1-1 D
Rezeknes FA	1-1 D	1-0 W
Valmiera FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Marupes SC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SK Super Nova II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JFK Ventspils

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
20/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia Cup	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
14/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
01/06	Upesciema Warriors Latvia Cup	1-0	3-0	11	4	W
23/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	9	7	L

SK Super Nova II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	10	L
25/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
19/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
05/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
13/06	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	3-7	5	3	L
26/05	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
13/05	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
09/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
02/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JFK Ventspils vs SK Super Nova II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JFK Ventspils win (37%). Probabilities: JFK Ventspils 37%, draw 26%, SK Super Nova II 37%.

How many goals are expected in JFK Ventspils vs SK Super Nova II?

The model expects 2.84 goals (JFK Ventspils 1.42 · SK Super Nova II 1.42), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JFK Ventspils vs SK Super Nova II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.