Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 08/08, 17:30

Prediction: Metta/LU vs RFS II

Team pages: Metta/LU · RFS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.56Total

Metta/LU3.28

RFS II1.28

1X2

84% 9% 7%

Metta/LU Draw RFS II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Metta/LU 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWD

RFS II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLDLWL

Head-to-head

Metta/LU 1–0 RFS II (1 last)

RFS II0-3Metta/LU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metta/LU 1626 · RFS II 1470

	Metta/LU	Draw	RFS II
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	91%	6%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 4.56 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metta/LU (rating 1626 vs 1470).
High corners: 17.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metta/LU	RFS II
Goals for / against (FT)	4.4 / 1	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	2.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/0/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	5 / 10	3.2 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.03

X17.00

226.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.75)1.85

2 (+3.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.93

Under 4.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
X	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
2	26.00 → 26.00	Bet365 26.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +6’	1.03	17.00	26.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Metta/LU 1–0–0 RFS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	0-3 HT 0-1	Metta/LU

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	15	12	2	1	40	13	38
2	Metta/LU	15	12	2	1	57	13	38
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	15	10	3	2	26	18	33
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	15	9	5	1	30	13	32
5	JDFS Alberts	15	7	4	4	30	23	25
6	Marupes SC	15	7	1	7	26	24	22
7	Riga FC II	15	6	2	7	23	28	20
8	SK Super Nova II	15	5	5	5	21	23	20
9	Skanstes SK	15	5	1	9	25	31	16
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	15	3	3	9	19	41	12
11	RFS II	15	3	3	9	21	33	12
12	JFK Ventspils	15	2	5	8	18	26	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	15	2	4	9	18	39	10
14	Rezeknes FA	15	1	2	12	12	41	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metta/LU	RFS II
Riga FC II	2-2 D	1-3 L
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	9-0 W	0-2 L
Marupes SC	4-0 W	4-1 W
Skanstes SK	3-1 W	0-4 L
SK Super Nova II	7-3 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Metta/LU (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Metta/LU

DWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-2	9	5	D
27/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	6-0	9-0	14	0	W
18/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
10/07	SK Speks Latvia Cup	0-1	3-1	14	4	W
04/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	10	2	W
28/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
20/06	FK Kekava/Auda Latvia Cup	3-0	5-0	10	1	W
13/06	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	5-0	7-3	4	3	W
31/05	FK Lielupe Latvia Cup	4-0	6-0	19	0	W
23/05	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D

RFS II

DLLWWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	13	7	L
25/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	5-3	5	7	W
20/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
05/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
27/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	8	5	W
23/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
16/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-4	7	3	L
02/05	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	9	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metta/LU vs RFS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metta/LU win (84%). Probabilities: Metta/LU 84%, draw 9%, RFS II 7%.

How many goals are expected in Metta/LU vs RFS II?

The model expects 4.56 goals (Metta/LU 3.28 · RFS II 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Metta/LU vs RFS II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.