Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Valmiera FC

Team pages: FK Smiltene/BJSS · Valmiera FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

FK Smiltene/BJSS0.86

Valmiera FC2.86

1X2

8% 13% 79%

FK Smiltene/BJSS Draw Valmiera FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

FK Smiltene/BJSS 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLWLW

Valmiera FC 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

FK Smiltene/BJSS 1–5 Valmiera FC (6 last)

FK Smiltene/BJSS1-4Valmiera FC
Valmiera FC4-0FK Smiltene/BJSS
Valmiera FC4-2FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS1-6Valmiera FC
FK Smiltene/BJSS1-0Valmiera FC
Valmiera FC2-1FK Smiltene/BJSS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1449 · Valmiera FC 1617

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Draw	Valmiera FC
Our model	8%	14%	78%
Market	8%	12%	80%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1449 vs 1617).
H2H favours Valmiera FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Valmiera FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	2.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

112.00

X7.50

21.14

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.82

2 (-2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	13.00 → 12.00▼	Bet365 12.00
X	9.00 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50
2	1.10 → 1.14▲	Bet365 1.14

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:17 +8’	13.00	9.00	1.10
01:14 +13’	12.00▼	7.50▼	1.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:00 +2’	10.48	7.30	1.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1–0–5 Valmiera FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/06/26 Latvia Cup	FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-4 HT 1-3	Valmiera FC
12/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Valmiera FC	4-0 HT 1-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
12/08/17 Latvia 1. Liga	Valmiera FC	4-2 HT 3-1	FK Smiltene/BJSS
22/04/17 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-6 HT 1-2	Valmiera FC
29/10/16 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-0 HT 1-0	Valmiera FC
26/06/16 Latvia 1. Liga	Valmiera FC	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	15	12	2	1	40	13	38
2	Metta/LU	15	12	2	1	57	13	38
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	15	10	3	2	26	18	33
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	15	9	5	1	30	13	32
5	JDFS Alberts	15	7	4	4	30	23	25
6	Marupes SC	15	7	1	7	26	24	22
7	Riga FC II	15	6	2	7	23	28	20
8	SK Super Nova II	15	5	5	5	21	23	20
9	Skanstes SK	15	5	1	9	25	31	16
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	15	3	3	9	19	41	12
11	RFS II	15	3	3	9	21	33	12
12	JFK Ventspils	15	2	5	8	18	26	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	15	2	4	9	18	39	10
14	Rezeknes FA	15	1	2	12	12	41	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Valmiera FC
JFK Ventspils	2-1 W	2-0 W
RFS II	3-5 L	2-1 W
Skanstes SK	2-4 L	3-0 W
Riga FC II	0-2 L	3-0 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 D	4-1 W
SK Super Nova II	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera FC (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Smiltene/BJSS

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
25/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-4	6	1	L
22/06	Valmiera FC Latvia Cup	1-3	1-4	2	8	L
14/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
30/05	Futbola Parks Academy Latvia Cup	0-1	5-1	–	–	W
24/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
13/05	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L

Valmiera FC

DWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	7	W
27/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
18/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
12/07	Ogre United Latvia Cup	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
05/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
28/06	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
22/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia Cup	3-1	4-1	7	8	W
14/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-1	4	1	W
30/05	Skanstes SK Latvia Cup	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
26/05	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Valmiera FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valmiera FC win (79%). Probabilities: FK Smiltene/BJSS 8%, draw 13%, Valmiera FC 79%.

How many goals are expected in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Valmiera FC?

The model expects 3.72 goals (FK Smiltene/BJSS 0.86 · Valmiera FC 2.86), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Valmiera FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.