Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Smiltene/BJSS vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Team pages: FK Smiltene/BJSS · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

FK Smiltene/BJSS2.27

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1.73

1X2

49% 22% 29%

FK Smiltene/BJSS Draw FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Smiltene/BJSS 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLLWW

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLLWW

Head-to-head

FK Smiltene/BJSS 2–1–3 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II (6 last)

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-1FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS0-3FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-2FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-2FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS0-2FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Smiltene/BJSS0-3FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1481 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1454

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Draw	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
Our model	50%	22%	29%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Tukums 2000/TSS II: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.6	1.1 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	0.6 / 2.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.85▼	Pinn 2.06 ★
X	3.80 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	2.88 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:29 +6’	2.00	3.80	2.88
05:39 +26’	1.85▼	3.90▲	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +34’	1.83	3.75	3.18
11:04 +4’	1.85▲	3.82▲	3.22▲
11:49 +27’	2.06▲	3.62▼	2.86▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Smiltene/BJSS 2–1–3 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
05/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
24/05/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
25/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-2 HT 1-2	FK Smiltene/BJSS
28/04/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
16/09/23 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-3 HT 0-2	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	22	18	3	1	93	17	57
2	Valmiera FC	22	16	4	2	61	24	52
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	22	16	4	2	47	25	52
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	22	14	5	3	50	27	47
5	JDFS Alberts	22	12	4	6	44	31	40
6	Marupes SC	22	10	2	10	37	34	32
7	Riga FC II	21	7	5	9	29	37	26
8	Skanstes SK	22	8	2	12	43	44	26
9	SK Super Nova II	22	6	8	8	29	33	26
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	21	5	3	13	27	60	18
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	21	4	4	13	29	57	16
12	RFS II	22	4	3	15	36	65	15
13	JFK Ventspils	22	3	6	13	21	45	15
14	Rezeknes FA	21	1	3	17	17	64	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Smiltene/BJSS	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	4-1 W	2-4 L
JDFS Alberts	2-3 L	1-1 D
Metta/LU	0-6 L	0-9 L
Saldus SS/Leevon	2-4 L	0-3 L
JFK Ventspils	2-1 W	1-0 W
RFS II	3-5 L	2-0 W
Rezeknes FA	1-0 W	3-1 W
Marupes SC	1-2 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Smiltene/BJSS (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Smiltene/BJSS

LWLWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
12/09	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-1	2	10	W
05/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	2-3	8	10	L
29/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-6	–	–	L
23/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-3	2-4	3	2	L
08/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-4	2	3	L
02/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
25/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

LWLDLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	0-5	–	–	L
06/09	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
30/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-5	2-6	4	2	L
09/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
03/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
27/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-6	0-9	0	0	L
20/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Smiltene/BJSS win (49%). Probabilities: FK Smiltene/BJSS 49%, draw 22%, FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 29%.

How many goals are expected in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

The model expects 3.99 goals (FK Smiltene/BJSS 2.27 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.73), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.