Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Valmiera FC vs JFK Ventspils

Team pages: Valmiera FC · JFK Ventspils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Valmiera FC2.47

JFK Ventspils1.16

1X2

65% 19% 15%

Valmiera FC Draw JFK Ventspils

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Valmiera FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWLDD

JFK Ventspils 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Valmiera FC 1–0 JFK Ventspils (1 last)

JFK Ventspils0-2Valmiera FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1562 vs 1420).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valmiera FC	JFK Ventspils
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.4	0.5 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.1	2.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.77

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:29

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.09 → 1.09	Pinn 1.09
X	8.68 → 8.68	Pinn 8.68
2	12.10 → 12.10	Pinn 12.10

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +18’	1.09	8.68	12.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera FC 1–0–0 JFK Ventspils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-2 HT 0-0	Valmiera FC

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	23	19	3	1	96	18	60
2	Valmiera FC	23	16	5	2	63	26	53
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	23	16	5	2	49	27	53
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	23	15	5	3	54	30	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46	33	41
6	Marupes SC	23	10	3	10	37	34	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36	39	30
8	SK Super Nova II	24	7	8	9	33	36	29
9	Skanstes SK	23	8	2	13	46	48	26
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	23	5	5	13	34	61	20
11	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	24	5	4	15	31	68	19
12	RFS II	23	5	3	15	37	65	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21	45	16
14	Rezeknes FA	23	1	3	19	17	70	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valmiera FC	JFK Ventspils
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	2-2 D	0-1 L
SK Super Nova II	1-1 D	0-2 L
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	2-4 L	1-1 D
Metta/LU	2-2 D	0-7 L
Marupes SC	4-1 W	0-0 D
FK Smiltene/BJSS	4-1 W	1-2 L
RFS II	2-1 W	1-4 L
Riga FC II	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera FC (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valmiera FC

WWWWWDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-4	6	4	L
12/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-2	1	10	D
30/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	6-1	–	–	W
22/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
08/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
01/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	7	W
27/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W

JFK Ventspils

DLLDLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
10/10	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-4	6	3	L
26/09	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-7	2	2	L
05/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-4	2	4	L
29/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valmiera FC vs JFK Ventspils?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valmiera FC win (65%). Probabilities: Valmiera FC 65%, draw 19%, JFK Ventspils 15%.

How many goals are expected in Valmiera FC vs JFK Ventspils?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Valmiera FC 2.47 · JFK Ventspils 1.16), with a 57% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Valmiera FC vs JFK Ventspils?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.