Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 24/10, 12:00

Prediction: Metta/LU vs Saldus SS/Leevon

Team pages: Metta/LU · Saldus SS/Leevon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

Metta/LU3.12

Saldus SS/Leevon1.18

1X2

75% 14% 11%

Metta/LU Draw Saldus SS/Leevon

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Metta/LU 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWWWW

Saldus SS/Leevon 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Metta/LU 1–0 Saldus SS/Leevon (1 last)

Saldus SS/Leevon1-3Metta/LU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metta/LU 1619 · Saldus SS/Leevon 1581

	Metta/LU	Draw	Saldus SS/Leevon
Our model	75%	14%	10%
Market	75%	14%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 17.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metta/LU	Saldus SS/Leevon
Goals for / against (FT)	5 / 0.7	2.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	2.6 / 0.5	2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.1 / 9.6	4.7 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)2.00

2 (+2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 6.80
2	8.50 → 8.50	Pinn 9.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:20 +56’	1.20	6.50	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +7’	1.15	6.80	9.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metta/LU 1–0–0 Saldus SS/Leevon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Saldus SS/Leevon	1-3 HT 0-2	Metta/LU

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	23	19	3	1	96	18	60
2	Valmiera FC	23	16	5	2	63	26	53
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	23	16	5	2	49	27	53
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	23	15	5	3	54	30	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46	33	41
6	Marupes SC	23	10	3	10	37	34	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36	39	30
8	SK Super Nova II	24	7	8	9	33	36	29
9	Skanstes SK	23	8	2	13	46	48	26
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	23	5	5	13	34	61	20
11	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	24	5	4	15	31	68	19
12	RFS II	23	5	3	15	37	65	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21	45	16
14	Rezeknes FA	23	1	3	19	17	70	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metta/LU	Saldus SS/Leevon
SK Super Nova II	3-1 W	2-1 W
JDFS Alberts	3-1 W	2-2 D
JFK Ventspils	7-0 W	4-0 W
FK Smiltene/BJSS	6-0 W	4-2 W
Rezeknes FA	2-0 W	2-1 W
RFS II	12-1 W	6-3 W
Riga FC II	2-2 D	1-1 D
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	9-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Metta/LU (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metta/LU

WDWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
10/10	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
19/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	11	3	W
12/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	7-0	5	2	W
05/09	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-2	14	10	D
29/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	6-0	–	–	W
23/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	9-1	12-1	16	8	W
01/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-2	9	5	D
27/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	6-0	9-0	14	0	W

Saldus SS/Leevon

WWWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-2	8	6	D
10/10	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-0	5	3	W
19/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	5-0	6-3	–	–	W
13/09	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
06/09	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
29/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	11	3	W
23/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-2	4-2	14	2	W
08/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
01/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
25/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metta/LU vs Saldus SS/Leevon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metta/LU win (75%). Probabilities: Metta/LU 75%, draw 14%, Saldus SS/Leevon 11%.

How many goals are expected in Metta/LU vs Saldus SS/Leevon?

The model expects 4.3 goals (Metta/LU 3.12 · Saldus SS/Leevon 1.18), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Metta/LU vs Saldus SS/Leevon?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.