Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Marupes SC vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Team pages: Marupes SC · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Marupes SC1.19

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners2.31

1X2

18% 20% 62%

Marupes SC Draw FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Marupes SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWDWD

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Marupes SC 0–3 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (3 last)

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners2-0Marupes SC
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners3-1Marupes SC
Marupes SC1-2FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marupes SC 1489 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1568

	Marupes SC	Draw	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Our model	18%	21%	62%
Market	19%	19%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (rating 1489 vs 1568).
H2H favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners: 3-0-0.
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marupes SC	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.6 / 5.6	3.6 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.75

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.75▲	Pinn 4.92 ★
X	4.33 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	1.57 → 1.42▼	Pinn 1.43

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +4’	4.00	4.33	1.57
11:23 +10’	4.75▲	4.75▲	1.42▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +33’	4.92	4.45	1.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Marupes SC 0–0–3 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	2-0 HT 1-0	Marupes SC
09/08/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	3-1 HT 1-0	Marupes SC
12/04/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	23	19	3	1	96	18	60
2	Valmiera FC	23	16	5	2	63	26	53
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	23	16	5	2	49	27	53
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	23	15	5	3	54	30	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46	33	41
6	Marupes SC	23	10	3	10	37	34	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36	39	30
8	SK Super Nova II	24	7	8	9	33	36	29
9	Skanstes SK	23	8	2	13	46	48	26
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	23	5	5	13	34	61	20
11	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	24	5	4	15	31	68	19
12	RFS II	23	5	3	15	37	65	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21	45	16
14	Rezeknes FA	23	1	3	19	17	70	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marupes SC	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
JFK Ventspils	0-0 D	1-1 D
RFS II	3-2 W	3-1 W
Riga FC II	0-0 D	3-1 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	5-0 W	4-2 W
Valmiera FC	1-4 L	4-2 W
SK Super Nova II	2-1 W	3-0 W
Skanstes SK	2-4 L	4-3 W
Rezeknes FA	2-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marupes SC

WLLWLLWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
10/10	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-2	5	2	W
20/09	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/09	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	5-0	5-0	–	–	W
29/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
22/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
08/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
01/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	5	2	L
25/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

DWWWWWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	4-3	7	7	W
10/10	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
19/09	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	4-2	10	4	W
12/09	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-4	17	10	L
05/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	5-0	11	5	W
29/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
24/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-1	1	5	W
09/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
31/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	3	10	W
25/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	13	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marupes SC vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Beitar Riga/Mariners win (62%). Probabilities: Marupes SC 18%, draw 20%, FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 62%.

How many goals are expected in Marupes SC vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Marupes SC 1.19 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 2.31), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Marupes SC vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.