Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Skanstes SK vs FK Smiltene/BJSS

Team pages: Skanstes SK · FK Smiltene/BJSS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.26Total

Skanstes SK2.45

FK Smiltene/BJSS1.82

1X2

51% 21% 28%

Skanstes SK Draw FK Smiltene/BJSS

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Skanstes SK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWLLL

FK Smiltene/BJSS 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Skanstes SK 4–1–1 FK Smiltene/BJSS (6 last)

FK Smiltene/BJSS2-4Skanstes SK
FK Smiltene/BJSS1-2Skanstes SK
Skanstes SK1-1FK Smiltene/BJSS
Skanstes SK0-3FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS0-3Skanstes SK
Skanstes SK3-0FK Smiltene/BJSS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Skanstes SK 1497 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1478

	Skanstes SK	Draw	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Our model	51%	20%	28%
Market	51%	21%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Skanstes SK: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Skanstes SK	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2.1	2.1 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.33

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 2.03 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:34 +45’	1.75	4.33	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:17 +2’	2.03	3.94	2.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Skanstes SK 4–1–1 FK Smiltene/BJSS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-4 HT 0-1	Skanstes SK
09/08/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-2 HT 1-2	Skanstes SK
12/04/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Smiltene/BJSS
10/11/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Smiltene/BJSS
28/07/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-3 HT 0-1	Skanstes SK
12/08/23 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	23	19	3	1	96	18	60
2	Valmiera FC	23	16	5	2	63	26	53
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	23	16	5	2	49	27	53
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	23	15	5	3	54	30	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46	33	41
6	Marupes SC	23	10	3	10	37	34	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36	39	30
8	SK Super Nova II	24	7	8	9	33	36	29
9	Skanstes SK	23	8	2	13	46	48	26
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	23	5	5	13	34	61	20
11	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	24	5	4	15	31	68	19
12	RFS II	23	5	3	15	37	65	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21	45	16
14	Rezeknes FA	23	1	3	19	17	70	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Skanstes SK	FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	3-4 L	4-1 W
JDFS Alberts	0-2 L	2-3 L
JFK Ventspils	0-1 L	2-1 W
RFS II	4-3 W	3-5 L
Riga FC II	2-3 L	2-2 D
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	6-2 W	3-2 W
SK Super Nova II	1-1 D	2-0 W
Saldus SS/Leevon	1-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Smiltene/BJSS (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Skanstes SK

LWWDWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	3-4	0	7	L
10/10	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
20/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
14/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-3	5	6	W
07/09	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-3	2	4	L
30/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	5-2	6-2	2	2	W
23/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
01/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
25/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

FK Smiltene/BJSS

LWLLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
19/09	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
12/09	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-1	2	10	W
05/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	2-3	8	10	L
29/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-6	–	–	L
23/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-3	2-4	3	2	L
08/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-4	2	3	L
02/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
25/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-5	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Skanstes SK vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Skanstes SK win (51%). Probabilities: Skanstes SK 51%, draw 21%, FK Smiltene/BJSS 28%.

How many goals are expected in Skanstes SK vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model expects 4.26 goals (Skanstes SK 2.45 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1.82), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Skanstes SK vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.