Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: JFK Ventspils vs Riga FC II

Team pages: JFK Ventspils · Riga FC II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

JFK Ventspils1.54

Riga FC II1.67

1X2

35% 25% 40%

JFK Ventspils Draw Riga FC II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

JFK Ventspils 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLDLL

Riga FC II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLDLL

Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils 0–5–1 Riga FC II (6 last)

Riga FC II4-2JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils2-2Riga FC II
Riga FC II2-2JFK Ventspils
Riga FC II0-0JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils1-1Riga FC II
JFK Ventspils0-0Riga FC II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JFK Ventspils 1433 · Riga FC II 1485

	JFK Ventspils	Draw	Riga FC II
Our model	34%	25%	40%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC II (rating 1433 vs 1485).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JFK Ventspils	Riga FC II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	1.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.70

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:55 +4’	2.55	3.70	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JFK Ventspils 0–5–1 Riga FC II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Riga FC II	4-2 HT 3-0	JFK Ventspils
19/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	2-2 HT 1-0	Riga FC II
13/06/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Riga FC II	2-2 HT 2-1	JFK Ventspils
06/10/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Riga FC II	0-0 HT 0-0	JFK Ventspils
15/06/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	1-1 HT 1-0	Riga FC II
20/08/23 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-0 HT 0-0	Riga FC II

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	17	14	2	1	48	15	44
2	Metta/LU	17	14	2	1	71	14	44
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	17	12	3	2	31	20	39
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	17	11	5	1	37	16	38
5	JDFS Alberts	17	9	4	4	35	24	31
6	Marupes SC	18	8	1	9	29	30	25
7	SK Super Nova II	18	6	6	6	25	26	24
8	Skanstes SK	17	6	2	9	31	33	20
9	Riga FC II	17	6	2	9	24	33	20
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	16	3	3	10	21	45	12
11	RFS II	17	3	3	11	23	48	12
12	JFK Ventspils	16	2	5	9	18	28	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	17	2	4	11	21	47	10
14	Rezeknes FA	17	1	2	14	13	48	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JFK Ventspils	Riga FC II
SK Super Nova II	0-2 L	2-1 W
FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-2 L	2-0 W
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-1 D	1-3 L
JDFS Alberts	1-3 L	0-2 L
Rezeknes FA	1-1 D	1-2 L
Valmiera FC	0-2 L	0-3 L
Marupes SC	2-1 W	0-4 L
Metta/LU	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: JFK Ventspils (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JFK Ventspils

LLWLDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
14/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	9	7	L
09/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L

Riga FC II

LLWWWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-3	11	5	L
08/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
01/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
27/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
19/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	5	5	W
04/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/06	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
14/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
23/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JFK Ventspils vs Riga FC II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Riga FC II win (40%). Probabilities: JFK Ventspils 35%, draw 25%, Riga FC II 40%.

How many goals are expected in JFK Ventspils vs Riga FC II?

The model expects 3.2 goals (JFK Ventspils 1.54 · Riga FC II 1.67), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JFK Ventspils vs Riga FC II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.