Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs RFS II

Team pages: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners · RFS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.32Total

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners3.16

RFS II1.16

1X2

79% 12% 8%

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Draw RFS II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDWWW

RFS II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLWLLL

Head-to-head

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 3–0 RFS II (3 last)

RFS II1-2FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners4-3RFS II
RFS II1-3FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1603 · RFS II 1447

	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	Draw	RFS II
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	82%	11%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 4.32 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (rating 1603 vs 1447).
H2H favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	RFS II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.9	1.8 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	1 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.9	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.13

X8.50

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.82

2 (+2.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:53 +8’	1.13	8.50	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 3–0–0 RFS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
01/11/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	4-3 HT 2-1	RFS II
05/07/25 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	1-3 HT 0-3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	17	14	2	1	48	15	44
2	Metta/LU	17	14	2	1	71	14	44
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	17	12	3	2	31	20	39
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	17	11	5	1	37	16	38
5	JDFS Alberts	17	9	4	4	35	24	31
6	Marupes SC	18	8	1	9	29	30	25
7	SK Super Nova II	18	6	6	6	25	26	24
8	Skanstes SK	17	6	2	9	31	33	20
9	Riga FC II	17	6	2	9	24	33	20
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	16	3	3	10	21	45	12
11	RFS II	17	3	3	11	23	48	12
12	JFK Ventspils	16	2	5	9	18	28	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	17	2	4	11	21	47	10
14	Rezeknes FA	17	1	2	14	13	48	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	RFS II
Riga FC II	3-1 W	1-3 L
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	4-2 W	0-2 L
SK Super Nova II	3-0 W	1-1 D
JDFS Alberts	4-0 W	1-3 L
Marupes SC	2-0 W	4-1 W
Metta/LU	2-2 D	1-12 L
Valmiera FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

WDWWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-1	1	5	W
09/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
31/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	3	10	W
25/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	13	4	D
18/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
04/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-0	9	2	W
27/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
14/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
23/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
16/05	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	3-1	3	7	W

RFS II

LWWLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
08/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-9	1-12	0	8	L
01/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	13	7	L
25/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	5-3	5	7	W
20/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
05/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
27/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	8	5	W
23/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
16/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs RFS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Beitar Riga/Mariners win (79%). Probabilities: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 79%, draw 12%, RFS II 8%.

How many goals are expected in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs RFS II?

The model expects 4.32 goals (FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 3.16 · RFS II 1.16), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs RFS II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.