Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 29/08, 18:00

Prediction: Marupes SC vs JDFS Alberts

Team pages: Marupes SC · JDFS Alberts

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Marupes SC1.2

JDFS Alberts1.97

1X2

22% 23% 55%

Marupes SC Draw JDFS Alberts

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Marupes SC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLWL

JDFS Alberts 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWDDWW

Head-to-head

Marupes SC 1–4 JDFS Alberts (5 last)

JDFS Alberts2-1Marupes SC
Marupes SC2-1JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts1-0Marupes SC
JDFS Alberts1-0Marupes SC
Marupes SC0-1JDFS Alberts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marupes SC 1443 · JDFS Alberts 1553

	Marupes SC	Draw	JDFS Alberts
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	23%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JDFS Alberts (rating 1443 vs 1553).
H2H favours JDFS Alberts: 4-0-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marupes SC	JDFS Alberts
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	2.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.3	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.10

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +8’	3.90	4.10	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marupes SC 1–0–4 JDFS Alberts

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	2-1 HT 0-0	Marupes SC
14/09/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	2-1 HT 0-0	JDFS Alberts
02/05/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	1-0 HT 0-0	Marupes SC
09/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	1-0 HT 1-0	Marupes SC
14/04/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	0-1 HT 0-0	JDFS Alberts

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	17	14	2	1	48	15	44
2	Metta/LU	17	14	2	1	71	14	44
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	17	12	3	2	31	20	39
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	17	11	5	1	37	16	38
5	JDFS Alberts	17	9	4	4	35	24	31
6	Marupes SC	18	8	1	9	29	30	25
7	SK Super Nova II	18	6	6	6	25	26	24
8	Skanstes SK	17	6	2	9	31	33	20
9	Riga FC II	17	6	2	9	24	33	20
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	16	3	3	10	21	45	12
11	RFS II	17	3	3	11	23	48	12
12	JFK Ventspils	16	2	5	9	18	28	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	17	2	4	11	21	47	10
14	Rezeknes FA	17	1	2	14	13	48	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marupes SC	JDFS Alberts
SK Super Nova II	2-1 W	1-1 D
Saldus SS/Leevon	0-1 L	0-0 D
Skanstes SK	2-4 L	4-1 W
Rezeknes FA	2-1 W	4-2 W
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	0-2 L	0-4 L
JFK Ventspils	1-2 L	3-1 W
RFS II	1-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JDFS Alberts (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marupes SC

LLLWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
08/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
01/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	5	2	L
25/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-4	2	4	L
04/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
27/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
14/06	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	6	4	L

JDFS Alberts

WWDWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
08/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
03/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	3-1	12	2	W
04/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
27/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	7	4	W
13/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
31/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	6-1	–	–	W
24/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marupes SC vs JDFS Alberts?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JDFS Alberts win (55%). Probabilities: Marupes SC 22%, draw 23%, JDFS Alberts 55%.

How many goals are expected in Marupes SC vs JDFS Alberts?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Marupes SC 1.2 · JDFS Alberts 1.97), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Marupes SC vs JDFS Alberts?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.