Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 10/10, 12:00

Prediction: Metta/LU vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Team pages: Metta/LU · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.28Total

Metta/LU2.74

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners1.53

1X2

62% 19% 19%

Metta/LU Draw FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Metta/LU 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWDWW

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Metta/LU 1–1–0 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (2 last)

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners2-2Metta/LU
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners0-4Metta/LU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metta/LU 1607 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1569

	Metta/LU	Draw	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Our model	62%	18%	19%
Market	62%	19%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 19.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metta/LU	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Goals for / against (FT)	5 / 0.7	2.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	2.3 / 0.4	1.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.9 / 10.8	4.3 / 8.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.75

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +4’	1.44	4.75	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metta/LU 1–1–0 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	2-2 HT 0-2	Metta/LU
13/07/24 Latvia Cup	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	0-4 HT 0-3	Metta/LU

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	21	17	3	1	89	17	54
2	Valmiera FC	21	16	3	2	60	23	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	21	15	4	2	43	25	49
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	21	14	5	2	50	23	47
5	JDFS Alberts	21	11	4	6	42	31	37
6	Marupes SC	21	9	2	10	34	32	29
7	Skanstes SK	21	8	2	11	43	42	26
8	Riga FC II	21	7	5	9	29	37	26
9	SK Super Nova II	21	6	7	8	28	32	25
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	21	5	3	13	27	60	18
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	21	4	4	13	29	57	16
12	RFS II	21	4	3	14	34	62	15
13	JFK Ventspils	21	3	6	12	21	41	15
14	Rezeknes FA	21	1	3	17	17	64	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metta/LU	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
JDFS Alberts	3-1 W	4-0 W
JFK Ventspils	7-0 W	1-1 D
Valmiera FC	2-2 D	4-2 W
FK Smiltene/BJSS	6-0 W	1-4 L
Rezeknes FA	2-0 W	5-0 W
RFS II	12-1 W	3-1 W
Riga FC II	2-2 D	3-1 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	9-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metta/LU

WWWDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	11	3	W
12/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	7-0	5	2	W
05/09	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-2	14	10	D
29/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	6-0	–	–	W
23/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	9-1	12-1	16	8	W
01/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-2	9	5	D
27/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	6-0	9-0	14	0	W
18/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
04/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	10	2	W

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

WLDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	4-2	10	4	W
12/09	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-4	17	10	L
05/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	5-0	11	5	W
29/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
24/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-1	1	5	W
09/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
31/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	3	10	W
25/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	13	4	D
18/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metta/LU vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metta/LU win (62%). Probabilities: Metta/LU 62%, draw 19%, FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 19%.

How many goals are expected in Metta/LU vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

The model expects 4.28 goals (Metta/LU 2.74 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1.53), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Metta/LU vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.