Football · Brazil Serie A · 04/11, 23:30

Prediction: Flamengo vs Gremio

Team pages: Flamengo · Gremio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Flamengo2.19

Gremio0.43

1X2

78% 16% 6%

Flamengo Draw Gremio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Flamengo 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDWWW

Gremio 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDDDLW

Head-to-head

Flamengo 3–1–2 Gremio (6 last)

Gremio0-1Flamengo
Flamengo1-1Gremio
Gremio0-2Flamengo
Gremio3-2Flamengo
Flamengo2-1Gremio
Gremio3-2Flamengo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flamengo 1611 · Gremio 1464

	Flamengo	Draw	Gremio
Our model	77%	17%	5%
Market	78%	15%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1611 vs 1464).
H2H favours Flamengo: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Flamengo	Gremio
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 8.5	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.02

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +5’	1.18	6.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 3–1–2 Gremio

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	0-1 HT 0-0	Flamengo
31/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	1-1 HT 0-0	Gremio
13/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	0-2 HT 0-1	Flamengo
22/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	3-2 HT 1-1	Flamengo
14/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	2-1 HT 1-0	Gremio
26/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	3-2 HT 0-1	Flamengo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	32	21	7	4	64	27	70
2	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56	22	69
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51	46	54
4	Athletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50	38	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	50	41	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	32	14	8	10	44	38	50
7	EC Bahia	32	13	11	8	45	40	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	49	47	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37	36	43
10	Bragantino	32	11	8	13	39	38	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	44	51	39
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	38	50	39
13	Vasco da Gama	31	10	8	13	39	45	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35	46	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37	45	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	36	40	35
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	35	44	34
18	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34	42	33
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	34	50	26
20	Chapecoense	31	4	9	18	32	63	21

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Flamengo	Gremio
Bragantino	2-1 W	0-1 L
Remo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Botafogo	3-0 W	2-3 L
Cruzeiro	1-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Flamengo (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Flamengo

LWWWWWDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-2	14	2	W
18/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	14	6	W
11/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
09/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	11	D
20/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	20	6	W
06/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
03/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L

Gremio

LWLLLDDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
18/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-4	8	6	L
11/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
20/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	10	D
17/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
12/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
08/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
30/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
23/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Gremio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (78%). Probabilities: Flamengo 78%, draw 16%, Gremio 6%.

How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Gremio?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Flamengo 2.19 · Gremio 0.43), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Gremio?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.