Football · Brazil Serie A · 05/11, 01:30

Prediction: Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro

Team pages: Botafogo · Atletico Mineiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Botafogo1.53

Atletico Mineiro1.08

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Botafogo Draw Atletico Mineiro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLDWLL

Atletico Mineiro 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDWWLL

Head-to-head

Botafogo 3–2–1 Atletico Mineiro (6 last)

Atletico Mineiro1-1Botafogo
Botafogo1-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro1-0Botafogo
Atletico Mineiro1-3Botafogo
Atletico Mineiro0-0Botafogo
Botafogo3-0Atletico Mineiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo 1445 · Atletico Mineiro 1526

	Botafogo	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	48%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (rating 1445 vs 1526).
H2H favours Botafogo: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo	Atletico Mineiro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 1.95▼	Pinn 1.97
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.79 ★
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.61

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +26’	2.20	3.50	3.00
07:23 +4’	2.10▼	3.50	3.20▲
12:49 +6’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:37	1.94	3.73	3.63
01:40 +12’	1.99▲	3.74▲	3.61▼
03:31 +13’	2.00▲	3.74	3.56▼
02:30 +52’	1.97▼	3.79▲	3.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 3–2–1 Atletico Mineiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-1 HT 1-0	Botafogo
20/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
20/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo
30/11/24 Copa Libertadores	Atletico Mineiro	1-3 HT 0-2	Botafogo
21/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	0-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo
08/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	3-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	68	28	73
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56	22	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52	46	57
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52	42	54
5	Athletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	50	40	54
6	EC Bahia	33	14	11	8	48	42	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	33	14	8	11	44	39	50
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	49	47	47
9	Bragantino	33	12	8	13	42	38	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	39	39	43
11	Coritiba	33	11	9	13	40	50	42
12	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45	53	39
13	Vasco da Gama	32	10	8	14	40	49	38
14	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	35	48	38
15	Gremio	33	9	10	14	37	44	37
16	Mirassol	33	9	10	14	37	47	37
17	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	36	42	36
18	Internacional	33	8	11	14	37	42	35
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	36	51	29
20	Chapecoense	32	4	9	19	32	66	21

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo	Atletico Mineiro
Chapecoense	1-0 W	1-1 D
Coritiba	1-1 D	1-0 W
Bragantino	1-1 D	1-0 W
Flamengo	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Mineiro (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo

LDDWLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	8	1	L
24/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
17/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
12/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
08/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
19/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
17/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	2	L

Atletico Mineiro

WLWDWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
27/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-2	2-3	0	2	L
17/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
11/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	12	7	W
09/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo win (47%). Probabilities: Botafogo 47%, draw 27%, Atletico Mineiro 26%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Botafogo 1.53 · Atletico Mineiro 1.08), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.