Football · Brazil Serie A · 14/11, 22:30

Prediction: Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro

Team pages: Mirassol · Atletico Mineiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Mirassol1.56

Atletico Mineiro1.05

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Mirassol Draw Atletico Mineiro

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mirassol 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLWDLW

Atletico Mineiro 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWWLLL

Head-to-head

Mirassol 0–1–2 Atletico Mineiro (3 last)

Atletico Mineiro3-1Mirassol
Atletico Mineiro1-0Mirassol
Mirassol2-2Atletico Mineiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mirassol 1502 · Atletico Mineiro 1501

	Mirassol	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Mineiro: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mirassol	Atletico Mineiro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 13:33

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.98 → 1.99▲	Pinn 1.99
X	3.61 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.60
2	3.76 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.75

See the full journey (4)

Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:07 +88’	1.98	3.61	3.76
01:22 +13’	2.01▲	3.59▼	3.70▼
04:06 +20’	2.07▲	3.54▼	3.56▼
13:24 +8’	1.99▼	3.60▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirassol 0–1–2 Atletico Mineiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	3-1 HT 1-1	Mirassol
28/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-0 HT 1-0	Mirassol
26/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	2-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	57
5	Athletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	54
6	EC Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	34	14	8	12	44	40	50
8	Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	42
13	Vasco da Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	29
20	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33	68	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mirassol	Atletico Mineiro
Chapecoense	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sao Paulo	1-1 D	0-2 L
Bragantino	1-1 D	1-0 W
Botafogo	2-0 W	0-1 L
Coritiba	2-1 W	1-0 W
Flamengo	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mirassol (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mirassol

LWDWDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
24/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
17/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
12/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
08/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
13/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	12	10	D
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L

Atletico Mineiro

LWDWDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
29/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
27/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-2	2-3	0	2	L
17/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
11/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	12	7	W
09/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mirassol win (48%). Probabilities: Mirassol 48%, draw 27%, Atletico Mineiro 25%.

How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Mirassol 1.56 · Atletico Mineiro 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.